Tagged: Covid Play
- This topic has 12 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 5 months ago by VALUEBUYER001.
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July 3, 2020 at 10:38 am #7520headsteadRegistered Boarder
Good Morning, Fellow Lycosians, Yesterdays conference call was signiicant for me from one important aspect. Prior to the Call, I was convinced that BCG was going to be my best bet during Covid Times. But after the call, I am all but excited about it. While Telecom and some Pharma Cos are total Covid plays, I thought Digital Advertizing would not be a direct beneficiary and at the same time would not get adversely hit as well. But anyone who listned to the CEO for the first 5 minutes would know that he not only said that we are not adversey hit, but he also went to the extent of saying that business has picked up since the Covid Nadir. In the ensuing period , sans the above sectors and IT, we are going to see abysmal results, while BCG will prove exceptional.
July 3, 2020 at 1:32 pm #7521adminKeymasterThanks @headstead for the bringing a vital observation from the conference. It is important to know the future prospects of every business in which we are invested, especially in this uncertain time and it is comforting to understand that the business is not impacted and rather looking for new opportunities arising out of adversity.
3+July 3, 2020 at 3:34 pm #7524sandyc316Registered BoarderHi @headstead I’ve been thinking about the future of the company – in terms of short-term (say 6 months to 1yr) and medium-term (say 2-3 yrs from now)
My take is that the covid pandemic is going to give us a boost in the short term as you also mention. On top of that, as per Suresh, with the LOC coming in, we could see a 25-30% growth in topline immediately. So the next 1 yr could turn out very well for us.
However, beyond that I feel a lot will depend on our execution – be it on updating our technology and tools in DM or getting meaningful contribution from future technologies. While I trust the management to deliver on DM, the vertical of ‘future technologies’ is an un-chartered territory and that makes me wary and hopeful both at the same time.
What are your thoughts?
July 3, 2020 at 5:08 pm #7525Hi Sandy, I agree with your thinking. But with one caveat. Even with the current earnings. we need to do a significant catchup on the PE multiple. the growth story here can be two pronged a) DM and b) AI / ML. I think the Top Mgmt was meandering all these years, between, a couple of options in the past few years, namely , !) Ecommerce 2) IOT and 3} Blockchain. they were certainly distractions and notably worthy ones and in the same chronological sequence. And then came AI /. ML. And for real, the rest were mere cases of testing waters. I think we are really serious about AI / ML and have forayed into Agri and Medical sciences as well. by the time we reach a PE multiple of 15 for the current business, am sure we will be noteworthy on this new arena.
July 3, 2020 at 9:27 pm #7526sandyc316Registered BoarderHi @headstead your statement gives a lot of confidence and I completely agree with you that there’s a lot of catching up that needs to happen even for the current business. I do hope to see that happening in the next 1 year. If everything falls in place perfectly then it’s going to be a fantastic year ahead for us!
2+July 4, 2020 at 7:39 am #7527VALUEBUYER001Registered BoarderThanks Headstead Sir for sharing your opinions which gives greater confidence to hold on brightcom group share.
2+July 4, 2020 at 5:53 pm #7530Recently our govt has set aside USD 13.2 Bln Agri Infrastructure fund for Agritech to solve supply chain woes.
July 8, 2020 at 9:41 am #7564July 19, 2020 at 10:00 pm #7762VALUEBUYER001Registered BoarderHeadstead Sir you please share your views frequently thi I am asking you on behalf of many persons
3+July 24, 2020 at 3:09 pm #7800lycos.rags.to.richesRegistered BoarderHi Headstead,
What do you think about tanla and BCG now, i remember a decade ago tanla and BCG were in the same boat with low valuations, market didnt understand much of their business. You were confident on both BCG and Tanla. Today Tanla hit a century but we are still waiting for BCG to come into two digits. Tanla management has taken many investor friendly decisions over a period of time which BCG is not able to for various reason.
July 24, 2020 at 6:30 pm #7805Dear Rags to Riches, I am happy to address your question. with a little bit of history. My original recommendation for Tanla was at Rs3.50.
Thoise days ‘kiranam ” was the only boarder in Tanla board, who had a love hate relationship with Tanla. I had studied Tanla for almost 5 years prior, and had seen its glory days and its fall to single digits. If i remember correctly Tanla used to quote in excess 0f 800 Rs. It had its fall almost in tandem with Nokia, and made costly acquisitions and ended up amortizing and depreciating assets over several years, and during that time it came from high triple digits to single digits. I recommended Tanla, when I knew that Uday and team had completed their job of amortization over several years. I saw their core VAS messaging picking up. That was the inflection point at 3.5. So much of history and effort from my end. I am glad it benefited so many. Personally I had 1.75 lakh shares of Tanla purchased at Rs 16, and i moved out to BCG at 28.5. A humungous loss which words cannot explain. If I look at the opportunity cost it kills me every day. And if I do the math, that would be my end.Now coming to BCG, most of us know what has happened and is happening.
BCG is too strong fundamentally, and the biggest market anomaly even today. It has got ridden of a lot of market related woes, and of course at the cost of long term investors like me who stand shattered and decimated.
We are at the fag end of a prolongated and dirty ordeal.
And trust me BCG will cross Tanla within a year, wherever Tanla may be.
I am an extreme fundamental analyst. And the amount of time and energy spent on BCG is enormous.
Wishing you all the best.
July 24, 2020 at 6:48 pm #7806T9CRegistered BoarderDear @headstead,
Thanks for detailed explanation and it gives lot of confidence.
I have one doubt. We all know that Online Media Solutions (aka ‘ORIDIAN’) is 100% subsidiary of BCG. Recently there is a website with ‘www.oridian.com’ is up and claims ‘Compass’ is their proprietary technology.
I am sure that this website was not working a year or two years ago. This logo is similar to old OMS Oridian.
Do you have any idea about this? who is operating this now?
Thanks in advance.
July 24, 2020 at 6:56 pm #7807VALUEBUYER001Registered BoarderThanks dear Headstead Sir for your reply sharing your experience reg tanla and BCG. Thanks for your views which gives us confidence to hold on to BCG at this crucial stage.hope all the problems of BCG are sorted out soon.let us hope for the Best.I have seen lot of pump and dump stories.but bcg is very unique as accumulation is going on and on and on for 5 years.since fundamentals are intact intrinsic value is bound to reflect.
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