[Logan]

In one of your posts you wrote that the CEO is hiding everything and that all the problems are self-inflicted etc. How naïve do you think I am to believe that? Did you think I won’t have answers for that? I didn’t reply at that time because I just wanted to ignore you but let me show how difficult the CEO’s job is. It’s not like writing the same thing again and again.

So, according to you, the share price went below 3 levels only because of promoters suppressing the prices and you say that only to get the PO and PW, the CEO did all these. Good, but what about Criteo’s prices? Magnite/Rubicon’s? Marin Software’s? Millennial Media’s? RocketFuel’s? Then many other companies’ share prices have crashed significantly all these years. What’s the reason? Aren’t there any other factors? Have all these companies’ promoters suppressed the prices?

Then you wrote that the CEO deliberately did not close Axis issue sooner because the price will go up but you also say that everything is in his control. If everything is in his control then keeping Axis case open or close shouldn’t matter right? I’m really confused about this.

On PW, why go through all big procedures, that too openly, to get those shares? He could’ve bought the shares in the open market through proxies and he would’ve become so rich right? If he can keep the prices low to get warrants, he can easily suppress the prices to buy more shares from the open market. 59+ people could’ve easily bought maybe 30-40% (or maybe even more) of the shares without even making the price to go up. He can control everything to get the warrants but he can’t control the same things to get more shares. I don’t understand that logic.

Okay, let us assume everything was in his control, then the CEO could’ve allotted as many shares as he wanted at any price, pump up the prices to say book value level and he could’ve raised more money. LOC is not required at all if he does that. Why even try that LOC if everything could be controlled? As you’ve written in one of your posts, 2500crs ($350M) could’ve been raised but why does he want only that 750-900crs ($100-120M)? He always talks about growing the business more then why settle for just $100M? why not go for more?

Does he want just the shares or does he want to grow the business also? If given a choice and if everything was in his control he’d choose $350M over $100M. Why would he want to pay interest to get that LOC?

You have also written that the whole LOC thing was just to fool investors and he shows some data to convince shareholders and that data was morphed. My question is why does he even want to show that data if everything is morphed? He could have told those investors that it is confidential and that he won’t be able to show them the data right?

Okay, let it be, let us assume that the LOC is also just a drama, and let’s focus on whether there are genuine problems or is it just BCG that is trying to make up problems.

[Logan]

Millennial Media (MM)

2012 (March)
Price – $27.90 (IPO)
Valuation – $2Billion

Year – 2015 (September)
Price – $1.34
Acquired by AOL in a deal worth $238Million.
Deal price – $1.75 (30% premium to $1.34)

Though MM had good debut and the business was doing great, it couldn’t compete with giants and was sold for peanuts. It had acquired many companies, tried to expand the business but still failed. See how the stock has crashed, from $27+ to below $1.50.

Before it came to the markets it had higher growth rates and it had raised $240M which is 2.4 times what BCG had raised.

This is what Forbes wrote about Adtech stocks in an article,

For the rest of the ad tech industry, it’s another reminder that the public market that once ate up Millennial’s shares is now a brutal one to engage. TubeMogul trades below its 2014 IPO price and Rubicon Project trades below its 2014 first-day high. Rocket Fuel trades at a fraction of both the list price and initial highs of its 2013 IPO, as does Tremor Video. Even Criteo, which went public in October 2013 and improved share value pretty consistently for months after that, has endured a 30% haircut on its share price since mid-July, dropping it close to its first-day price.

[Logan]

MARIN SOFTWARE

The stock has declined steadily from $119.24 in March 2013, to $1.40 in 2020. Marin spent over $100M rewriting its software, with no significant effect on revenues or share price. The company is running out of cash, management and the board seem to be drifting, and sales continue to decline. But the ad market remains strong and the company still has $53 million in TTM revenues.

Marin, from 2006 till IPO in 2013 has raised $184.95M totally which is more than what BCG had raised ($100M). Now Marin is trading at $2. Marin, even though it had good cash/liquidity couldn’t stay competitive.

Revenue – 2013 ($77M), 2014 ($99M), 2015 ($109M), 2016 ($100M), 2017 ($75M), 2018 ($59M), 2019 ($49M).

Rocket Fuel Inc.

2013 (September)
Price – $61.23
Valuation – $2Billion+

2017
Price – below $2.00
Acquired by Sizmek in a deal worth $145Million
Deal Price – $2.60

Rocket Fuel had listed on the stock exchange in September 2013 at $29 a share. Initially the market was pleased with the company and the stock soon rose to $61.23 with a market capitalization of $2 billion. It’s lowest price was $1.70 which is 95% below it’s all time high price.

RocketFuel acquired a company [x+1] in August 2014 for $230M and still it couldn’t grow or stay competitive and later it was acquired by Adtech company Sizmek for $2.60 per share, in a deal that valued the company at $145M. At one point, the MCap was more than $2B but later was acquired for just $145M. It was sold for less than what it paid to get [x+1].

(Taken from an article)

Rocket Fuel’s dismal performance is not for lack of trying. It started new self-service offerings, including Dynamic Creative and improved Native capabilities that integrate into Dynamic Creative. The Dynamic Creative for self-service solution dynamically selects the layout and products most appropriate for each advertising moment and can create targeted advertisements almost real-time based on prospective consumers’ internet browsing habits.

So, RocketFuel’s case is similar to Millennial Media and Marin Software, even though these companies put all the efforts to stay competitive, they couldn’t survive. BCG’s case is little different, BCG has not lost focus on the business but it couldn’t grow because of cash flow issues

Not just these companies, even Magnite Inc (back then Rubicon), Criteo etc and many other companies have also struggled.

[Logan]

Magnite/Rubicon

Rubicon Project, before merging with Telaria fell from $20 levels to below $1.75 levels. Later, after the merger also it struggled for some time but now it’s outperforming all other shares because the interest in Adtech companies went up in the last year and CTV business is gaining momentum. In this case, the combination of two separate businesses created synergy and that helped the combined entity more. If the companies didn’t merge then they wouldn’t have had good growth rates. Combined entity gets the resources, technology etc to grow the business.

Revenue (without adding Telaria’s revenue)

2011 ($37M), 2012 ($57M), 2013 ($84M), 2014 ($125M), 2015 ($248M), 2016 ($278M), 2017 ($156M), 2018 ($125M), 2019 ($156M)

Rubicon’s IPO was in 2014 and like all the other companies, it also had good growth rates when it came to the market but it couldn’t sustain that growth and had to make many structural changes and finally decided to merge with Telaria to form Magnite.

Criteo

Criteo’s revenues have increased all these years but it’s price fell from $60 to below $6 ($5.89 is the 52-week low price). Profits are also almost flat like BCG but still it fell.

Revenue – 2012 ($350M), 2013 ($589M), 2014 ($988M), 2015 ($1.3232B), 2016 ($1.80B), 2017 (2.297B), 2018 ($2.30B), 2019 ($2.262B), 2020 ($2.073B)

Profits – 2012 (+$1M), 2013 (+$1M), 2014 (+$46M), 2015 (+$60M), 2016 (+$82M), 2017 (+91M), 2018 (+$89M), 2019 (+$91M), 2020 (+$75M)

Criteo’s IPO was in 2013 and as I’ve written above, companies have good growth rate when they come to the market (or they choose to come to the market when they can have higher growth rates).

Criteo, once valued ($2.59B) more than that of many other adtech companies put together, crashed to valuations below $400M or something in the last few years. Criteo’s share prices shot up again in the last year because it was beaten down very badly and also it made few structural changes. The market sentiment also improved because in the last one year, the market became more interested in the Adtech industry.

[Logan]

Conclusion

Looking at all these, we can say nothing is certain and that the Adtech industry is very competitive. Many companies that had more resources than BCG have struggled. 2015-2018 was a period of consolidation in the Adtech Industry. Many companies were acquired by bigger companies and other companies went out of business.

Adtech stocks had good reception in 2012-13 then from 2014-2019, except a few, all the other stocks had very bad reception and were beaten down heavily. Many companies didn’t deserve pathetic valuations but that was the sentiment back then. Now many companies don’t deserve high valuations but the market sentiment is very strong.

BCG’s problems are self-inflicted, okay, but what about the problems of all these companies? Did all these, and many other companies make up problems or are there real problems that every company faces?

Only when we dig deeper we’ll understand what the situation is. This is a business that needs ample cash for survival, and for growth. If you don’t invest in technology and if you don’t stay competitive then you lose business. It took time to close off bank debts because of cash flow issues. BCG had to dedicate cash to balance both – business and resolving outstanding issues. I’m not justifying the delay but it is how it is in this competitive field. As the CEO said in one of the conference calls, if he spent all the cash to pay off debt or to pay DAUM in one-go, instead of focusing on the business then the business would’ve suffered. If the CEO and the management team take even one bad decision also then its all gone.

The companies mentioned above haven’t taken many bad decisions but still they couldn’t survive. What if similar situation happened to BCG? The CEO deserves some credit at least.

[Logan]

There’s no point in arguing with each other when we have different ideologies/understandings. You say you don’t want to have any conflicts with me but you’ll always try to undermine whatever I write. I just shared my opinions on the price movements and you came and commented as if those things don’t matter at all. Anyway, our views and opinions are different but we both have the same goal i.e. good returns on our investments. Let us concentrate on achieving that goal.

One request – from now on please stop replying to my posts. If you don’t like my posts then ignore them. I don’t have to force my opinions on you and you also don’t have to force your opinions on me. All these problems are coming because you reply to my posts and I reply to yours.

As you have written, this forum is for everyone and everyone can express their views and opinions. Let us continue to share our opinions, taking them or leaving them depends on the readers. It’s always better to have different views and opinions for the betterment of the forum.

[Diana Horton]

My Dear Logan

Good Morning

It rather truly intrigues and puzzles me to note the emotional side of yours , especially when you write about the CEO and the Nature of the CEO job and the difficulties faced by the CEO.I have never been a CEO of a company. I am unsure as to what other retailers perspective are in this regard.

I am a Retail investor based in Mumbai and having been in the markets for the past 16 Odd years, I do know about the Markets – the Dark and the Grey side of it .

You have mentioned two different aspects. One is the Business aspect of the company. The other is the Markets side of the company. We are not discussing here as to why the BCG Business has been a Laggard and stationary for the past 5 years. The Company has got a CEO and let us all leave the same to the appointed person to deal with it. I have complimented the CEO on multiple occasions for the same. I am not here to discuss about it and I have to admit I do not have the capabilities of it either. I personaly do not know what level of Validated capabilities you have regarding the same.

However, We are discussing about the Pathetic nature of the Markets, which Me, you and Most others have vested interest in. Being in the markets having seen the Good, Bad and the Ugly side of it , both Myselves and Many of our Fellow Retailers do have a Good Knowledge of what is happening here. You have posted research about the other companies. Every Company of course will be having its own Dynamics.

All we are interested and focussed here is on the Share Price of Brightcom, which has been a Laggard for the past 5 to 6 years, because of Wealth Erosion that has been caused for all of us( My Highest point of investment in BCG was when it was trading at Rs 52)

a. The way in which the CEO of the company has treated its share holders for the past 5 years ( Kindly request the CEO to publish all the Conference call documents that has happened for the past 5 years and lets as analyse in retrospect, what promises the CEO has made in the past 5 years regarding the share price)

b. The amount of Corporate Governance issues surrounding the company, because of the nature and attitude of the CEO

c. The way in which the PE investors were treated and given exit to ( That shows the respect to the Share holders)

d. The way in which – the walk the talk and False promises and fake Reassurances given CEO

e. The way in which the CEO has diluted the company on Two different occasions within One year

f. The way in which the share Price has been made of behave – for accommodating Multiple activities ( Exit of PE investors – Every single PE exit is a big story in itselves, for the allocation of extra Equities ie PA and PW)

g. Multiple shady connections and associations with regards to the planned share price fall with some Big Mumbai and Kolkatta based wealth management companies and its close association with the MMB board- Please remember the famous quotation of Rs 2.25 to Rs 2.5 targets given by certain MMB boarders, when the stock was trading at Rs 38 Odd levels

h. And Multiple other issues

You have quoted some 4 points as being inaccurate. I am more than happy to go into my research and substantiate and validate what I have written with evidence. I do not want any Spat on the forum. But You have conveniently, neglected the remaining 96 points that I have stated which I suppose, you don’t have answer for it, I guess.

I am here to call a Spade a Spade. I shall write my opinions and I would also want you to write your opinions. Opinions might differ.

Neither YOU , NOR I are from within the company. I certainly am and I suspect you may be aswell, as I cannot write on behalf of yourselves.So, whatever we are writing here are our analysis based on multiple factors from the knowledge what we have secured.It is a Possibility that both of us can be correct or both of us can be wrring on the incorrect side aswell.I do not take anything personally. If I am not in agreement with your view point, I politly place my view point with due respect. There is No need getting Emotional about it stating accusation etc. Beleive me, I am least interested in any spat and My main interest is to make money and having waited for 6 years and seen what I have seen based on multiple conference call, hardly you are not my target, whatsoever…

WE both are supportive of the company– I have noted that you have criticised the CEO of the company on a few occasions aswell. But, It is my personal observation that Your writings have a touch of bias towards Pro CEO and that is your opinion. My writings might be having a Touch of bias Pointing the CEO because of all the stock price suppression and letting down all the share holders

Whatever we write here are opinions based on the Virtue of Knowledge and experience as Retail share holders with research . Both of us do not know as to what is happening at the CEO level or Board level . At the end of the day, Its MARKETS.

Markets works BASED on Methodical Predictions followed by corrections based on Real time events, unless otherwise, It is Grossly influenced , as in the case of BCG.

Having said that, Both our targets are One and the same. For me – it will be to Retrieve the the Money that I lost because of the big Fiasco and to CREATE WEALTH.

……………………DH

[harshay]

#11227

I am thrilled to see the responses from CEO.
It is my personal opinion. With emotion Dear Logan exposed himself.
If it is wrong please excuse me Logan.

[mayur]

Logan says MI are not emotional. and they take calculative risk. and that they wont buy above 8 Rs now. and also that the traders and MI will only buy after lots of FUNDAMENTAL THINGS happen.

As i hv learned in markets, MOST traders and MI dont give a damn about fundamentals. they track technical parameters. which are very sound at the moment. even if we grant that assumption, that they follow fundamentals, was there a reason yday for them to sell after axis debt closure?? i dont think so.

Now who do u guys think will sell lacks of shares yday after axis news?? and for what reason?? bcoz of technicals which r good? or bcoz of good fundamental development??

1) a long term investor?
2) a trader?
3) MI ??
4) party interested in keeping price around 7.7 ??
5) EMI guys?

Guys be careful in following people who hide behind nicknames. i am not asking to unfollow them as a lot of informative posts r coming from such IDs too. but be smart enough to understand the moto behind the messages.

-Mayur.

[JRS]

Shorting at good news will be done because shorters know they will have buyers.

But we see the volume is low, which indicates retailers are not in a mood to sell despite shorting, however the Jockeys are keeping the stock price controlled through circular trading.

Why they are controlling the stock price and who is the man behind this, Till the Goenkas were in picture it was believed they are controlling the stock because they wanted to accumulate the stock at low price, but now who wants the stock to trade low?????, God knows.

Who ever it is, it is the duty of CEO to see that wealth of Shareholder is not eroded, if he himself is engaged in this cheap business, then no excuse, even if he is dedicated entrepreneur or hard working CEO.

[bitran]

Dear Logan ji,

DH is a long timer. I do not know her/him personally but she was writing in MMB 6-7 years back itself. So, please understand DH frustrations and do not take it personally. It is definitely not against you. A lot of people start talking that you belong to management as you support CEO mostly. It is also understandable, even I have been accused of management guy in the past when we post messages in favor of SKR.

There are so many positives for SKR but at the same time, I have to say, If a CEO cannot reward his shareholders in 7 years, we cannot justify him in any way. The issues that BCG is facing is not something unique. There are several companies who has cashflow issues, who is under litigation etc. None of these is a reason for its current penny status. Buying a few crores of shares from the market by SKR & his friends itself will have the capability to take this to 30+ level but there is no intent there. Personally, I was an ardent fan of SKR. Still believe he has lot of strengths but being a CEO also means, he takes care of his shareholders and he is failing miserably in that area. It is akin to a king who won the battle but has to sacrifice most of his people for that win. I don’t know, if the king can be happy standing on the bodies of his own people and if he can really be happy about such a win.

When the preferential warrants were allocated, most of us were in a dire state of stock. Not that, we are against the promoters & his friends hiking their stake.( I also feel, this dilution is a way to prevent a takeover ) We understand that they have gone through tougher times and if they feel, they should be rewarded, it is ok for most of us but what worried us even then was, the share price will not be allowed to go up until that activity is also completed. It means, minimum another quarter of long wait again. Our CEO talked about inflation point in 2019 Dec and still we the retailers are dreaming of that day. Our share price shuttles between 7-8 odd levels only.

Finally, as a common retail share holder, I am still waiting for the day it rewards me. When a minnow like affle is raising crores of money and its share price making high every day, Brightcom, a stalwart who visualized the adtech sector growth and trend decade back, is still in penny status and is giving ‘n’ number of excuses for being at that level. Longing for that day, when we feel proud about our investment in BCG….I hope that day is very near….

[Logan]

@Diana Horton, I apologise if I have hurt you. That’s not my intention at all.

I have not written those posts because you have criticized the CEO, I wrote them because I didn’t like your response to my post #11220. In that post I wrote my opinions on why the price may not increase and you responded saying

“So let’s not try too hard, to conceal the real fact and the real hardcore ugly and pitiful truth, by givng some glorified explanations to safe guard the culprits.”

I felt that your response was little harsh. I didn’t try to conceal any truth, I just shared my opinion. I have seen similar things happen in other companies I have invested in (mostly small cap companies). Then one more thing is that I felt whatever I write these days, you try to undermine the importance of my posts.

Last time we argued about topics related to the markets and before that on a different topic.

Yes, sometimes I’ll be Pro-CEO, Pro-management but not all the time. As you have also written, I have criticised the CEO many times, mostly for the pathetic state of corporate governance. If I don’t like any action of the CEO then I’ll be the first person to criticize him.

When we have different views and opinions, we’ll always have arguments, which is very common. We should make sure that we don’t hurt anyone. Healthy arguments are always good for us. Let us continue to share our opinions and let us focus on achieving our common goal.

[Logan]

@harshay, great detective work. Keep it up.

[hw_tw]

Price volatility has come down to a large extent. We are not seeing mad circuits these days resulting in circuit limit revised upwards to 10%.

I was worried that Axis news might undo this but it didn’t happen…:-)

Hoping that this sanity continues for ever and BCG trading as normal stock with 20% circuit limit.

[mayur]

Its good that finally the corporate governance is Improving with axis debt settlement on time. I am expecting more such corporate activities which reflects the good corporate intent. The price is going to rise slowly, and i also do not expect it to become 3 digit in 3 months. if it happens we will all enjoy it. but lets not eat hopium again. lets moderate our expectations but lets not moderate it to kachra levels also. 🙂

A decent PE is justified for Bcg in my view.

[jmathew]

Dears,
We all know that Axis is closed and BCG is debt-free.
We all know the reason, why the price is kept in this range.
We all know BCG is highly undervalued.
We all know what is going to happen after the PW approval.
We all did our homework for years in BCG and holding us per our capacity. Add more if possible, at this range.
I have doubled my holding after this forum is created. Thanks, and My Salute to Admin and all selfless boarders.

Great Quote by George Bernard Shaw
“If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.”
Cheers

[Alfa44]

Hello all

First of all I would like to thank all the members in this forum for their efforts to enlighten all shareholders about the script. I have been a silent reader for more than a year after stepping in BCG and this forum helped me understand the business like no other.

What I know is that investment should be based on reason and not emotion. And with continuous turn of events in the script with regards to its corporate governance I think it will be foolish to defend the management in any sort with regard to share price manipulation. The movement in price accordingly to meet the requirements of the needy (as so called) is there for everyone to see, be it during oak exit, short rally during most likely exit of the G’s and at present during the wait for PW allotment is enough for us to know how management is involved in it.

Yesterday we could see how sellers were managed to not let the price shoot above 8 even after axis closure news and how today it’s gradually being brought back to near 7.7 levels.

Have utmost respect towards Logan and I don’t want to speculate anyone as insider agent but I guess DH is right when it comes to the dirty games the CEO is doing.
The recorded transcripts of concalls are enough to show how SKR doesn’t walk the talk. From daum to LOC to consolidation of subsidary to below the bench distribution of dividends.

So what worries me is even if there is a rally after PW allotment will it be a healthy one?
As it will be a manipulated rally than how can we expect institutional investors and reputed fund houses to enter?

I believe it’s time we investors do take necessary action to safeguard our investment if corperate governance doesn’t improve soon.

[Rathi_b]

Speculation is the name of the game and we are playing it. So if you get played take it to your chin and move on. Don’t be happy that you have nailed it by exposing someone, be so when you get out with a good profit. I can rant long about members here but I know nothing is going to have a bearing on the stock price. In principle Approval of PW by exchanges will. It will bring liquidity and be back bone for further growth. LOC will further enhance the capability of business and lastly closure of Daum will bring most of the lost credibility and respect back. I am not concerned about dilution, some understanding regarding the business potential will make you all understand that after a year the effect of it on PE would be negligible. We should put pressure on the company to improve its commitment and communication with us. How long now will it be kept subdued? 3 or 6 months until issues get resolved. After that eventually the lid will be open. I’ve been here long enough to be patient for that to happen and if gives any immediate gratification or high or some sort of happiness in chest thumping in making unnecessary speculation, great enjoy. All we can do now is to wait and pray of some word on PW and then anything can be done. It is in their best interest and if this is the final nail in the coffin be happy because the great bull run is on its way after that. Liquidity in the market is a fraction of what it was in December or early January so not much selling is happening, everyone is waiting for the PW approval. Axis was never a bankrupting debt to the company where as the humongous dilution is still a concern to many. People will buy after a final word on it, as the “genuine” selling has now come down. I am not against anyone here and hope you people will maintain the sanctity and decorum in your expression in that regard. Just writing with the privilege that I had met the CEO a few times and yes still the price is languishing, so I will take it to my chin and wait for my day to write “Manipulations are over, good riddance”.

[hw_tw]

So, when do we say price is no more suppressed or manipulated by operators / management … What’s our definition for this

– When PW is approved
– When LoC is received
– When Daum is settled
– When the price goes above PW price say 9
– When it trades above 3PE or 5PE
– When a MF or FII enters in it

[Rathi_b]

Eventually

[Author]

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