Tagged: answer to Risk anlysis
December 1, 2021 at 9:28 am #12911BrightspotRegistered Boarder
out of desperation many videos are coming forcing others to book profit, all Ad tech companies have similar business model and its not only related to Brightcom..ignore such videos and MMB messages asking to book profit as they cant handle continuous price movement..December 1, 2021 at 5:34 pm #12912JackSparrow13Registered Boarder
Am a very small youtuber myself, who tries to make bad videos of shares.
Youtube is normally a bad medium for knowing about shares, unless youtuber is of very high quality (like say SOIC).
If one really wants to know about Brightcom, stick to this forum.
For other shares, 1st choice should be Valuepikr.
MMB is trash, It was a great forum, almost a decade earlier.6+December 2, 2021 at 6:56 am #12913chrisRegistered Boarder
Mr. Akshath Srivastav had tweeted saying that “stay away from BCG, promoter holding reduced” sometime last week and of course there was a backlash and a lot of people tried to correct him. He didn’t like it so came out with this video.
His main argument being “ there is NO news or No significant improvement in business to support price rise”. But unfortunately he conveniently forgot to mention that a company having 700-800 crore profit in March/2021 was trading at a market cap of 250 crore.
So you can call my view biased because I’m invested in the stock, I will call Mr. Akshath’s view biased because he got a spanking on Twitter 😂.December 2, 2021 at 11:24 pm #12914December 3, 2021 at 5:00 am #12916chrisRegistered Boarder
Firstly, Wisdom tree holdings show as ybrant digital so I guess they’ve been holding for ages now. But thank you so much for sharing.
Secondly, regarding the MSCI holdings, the data shows “as of November 30th” and Im assuming that they must have bought within the last month. So do you guys think that they might increase their holding this month?, and how significant is this news?, can we expect new funds entering in the near future.
Thank you in advance !!! As always indebted to this groupDecember 3, 2021 at 11:43 am #12917
@chris – Right, Wisdom Tree seems to be holding / tracking it since long time…but we are not sure how much they were holding before and if they had increased it recently or not
Anyway, some take aways from this list
– The fact that there is some foreign fund which is holding it for such a long time even during the toughest period of BCG is good to see
– BCG is in 66th place out of 472 stocks
– Affle is also there in the list at 467th place with holding of 755 shares…not to downgrade Affle, but I was expecting a higher percentage given its history of bull run since long… probably some other fund might be holding it higher
On your second question, it depends on the type of ETF…some fund managers change their holdings on daily basis and some change it on monthly or quarterly basis.
The BlackRock iShare fund seem to be doing it on monthly basis…at the end of the month they might increase or decrease too basis their internal criteria
If there are any other ETFs based on MSCI Smallcap Index, they will also be adding it in their portfolio. Since MSCI Indexes are popular across there might be many Indian Mutual funds / fund managers who would be tracking this list even though their fund is not based on this index … Probably we will get to see the impact of it in next month MFs holding updateDecember 3, 2021 at 1:04 pm #12918
One more American ETF holding BCG.
SPDR® S&P® Emerging Asia Pacific ETF is having 2 lakh shares of BCG
For more details visit https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-emerging-asia-pacific-etf-gmf
Attachments:December 3, 2021 at 1:36 pm #12920
One more ETF … Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Not sure of the exact no. of shares…Just a rough math basis the market value of $157582 … Assuming they have purchased it at 137 rupees with a $ conversion rate of 75 the total holding comes to around 85k shares
Attachments:December 3, 2021 at 2:39 pm #12923December 4, 2021 at 11:36 pm #12927Investor_2022Registered Boarder
We want to inform the Exchanges that the Company’s Board of Directors is scheduled to meet on Thursday, December 09, 2021. The Board will inter-alia:
1. Consider convening the 22nd Annual General Meeting of the Company and other related matters therein.
2. Discuss the issue & allotment of Equity Shares on a preferential basis towards an impending
acquisition of an Indian Ad-Tech firm. On July 07, 2021, we announced the signing of an LOI regarding this acquisition. It is now close to signing the definitive agreements to consummate that acquisition. The said earlier notice is attached to this notice for clarity and better understanding.
The Company shall release further details about the acquisition upon signing-off definitive agreements.December 5, 2021 at 4:31 am #12928
I don’t know about everyone’s opinion of that video about BCG by a Singaporean guy but for me it was a very good show to judge a person’s acting skills. Damn, he pretended very hard not to be biased and at the beginning he was good but later as the “show” went on he showed that he couldn’t act properly and clearly showed his bias. People like me will not watch these “shows” if the acting is not good. Unfortunately acting is not everyone’s cup of tea.
I liked his analysis too basing everything on BCG’s recent price movements rather than about the company’s fundamentals, it’s past, the events that have occurred etc and also whenever he talked about fundamentals, you could easily see that he wanted to highlight the “negatives”. And those “negative” things are negative because he thinks so and not because they are necessarily negative. He talked about BCG spending too much money on Capex and not growing the business. He said that the company has been investing a lot since 2010 but it hasn’t been able accelerate sales growth. But BOSS missed seeing the revenue growth from 2010 till the latest quarter. As per his screener, the revenue in 2010 was 384crs and in TTM September it was 3336crs. Isn’t that a good growth rate? More funnily, he was very desperate to highlight from 2016 leaving out the past.
He talked about BCG’s management giving away equity which was a bad sign and said they should’ve taken on debt. It’s a good advice but then after making this video on November 30th, few days later (on Dec 3rd) he has written about how even most well trained businesses struggle to manage their debt.
Let me quote that tweet of his here :
“When people are debt-free, they can do amazing things.
Start businesses, pursue passion and whatnot.
Realistically speaking: even most well trained businesses struggle to manage their debt. Expecting individuals to do it, is just plain wrong.”
So it’s one thing on YouTube but the opposite thing on Twitter. Hero becomes Villain in just 3 days. Only for BCG debt would’ve been good but for every other business (and people) debt would be very bad (and wrong). Boss we get that you are very biased but at least have some awareness about what you said just 3 days back. You can’t say one thing today and say completely opposite thing after just 3 days. You can’t flip things around just because you hate BCG.
He also talked about FIIs exit and from his and any random investor’s perspective it looks like a bad thing but we know why they sold and the impact it had on the share price. If he was unbiased I wouldn’t have had any complaints on this but since he pretended to know everything about the company, he should’ve checked properly before commenting. For example, about Oak, had he done enough research he could’ve known why they exited. He doesn’t know why they sold but still tried to make up a conspiracy around it. He said if Oak knew BCG had a good future then they wouldn’t have sold but my point is how could they have held their shares even after their fund was closed?December 5, 2021 at 4:33 am #12929
When he talked about price movements, he just wanted to know why the stock price went up more than 10 times since 2016 when the profit increased only by 200crs since then. Then he put some technical chart to show that price movements since Google MCM partnership was up 169% and that was justifiable. He wanted answers for every up-move but never bothered to talk about why BCG was trading so low for many years. If he was unbiased he would’ve talked about the important issues that brought down the price of BCG. The stock was so undervalued that after many important fundamental developments it had to go up and reach a fair value which it did in just few weeks. If it was not so undervalued and if it was priced fairly then it wouldn’t have moved like it did. So it’s very very important to know about the history of any company and that’s why I often talked about the issues of BCG.
(If everyone remembers I had written many important things about BCG’s past and why the share price fell. I tried to explain about many things/events that had happened in BCG’s past. Everyone will ask why BCG traded at low prices for years and all the answers were in that thread. It would’ve benefitted new investors who didn’t know BCG’s history properly. I also talked about the future and sometimes the impact any event had on BCG’s share price. The Admin had pinned those threads so that they were easily accessible to everyone who visits the forum.
Almost everyone liked those but later some people tried to undermine whatever I wrote and they tried to bring the perception that the past events didn’t have any impact and knowing about those was simply a waste of time. They said that I share too much information and I had some hidden motto etc. I had almost quit the forum because of some people and thought whatever I wrote was not benefitting anyone so I requested the Admin to unpin those threads and to delete them.
If any new investor wanted to know about BCG’s history and if they had any doubts/questions then they could’ve referred those threads and have their doubts sorted out. Now where will they get all that info easily? Whenever I write something, I try to make it understandable for everyone and not just for old investors. I don’t believe in half-assing something and I have this principle that if you do something you have to give your 100% but some people see it as something negative and they will try to influence others into believing it as a negative thing. It’s not my loss if they do that because I don’t lose anything.)
Anyway, forgetting the past and coming back to the great show by our unbiased actor, he talked about Affle and how great it is. According to him, only Affle has utilized the funds properly and BCG has not. This is where our actor shows his bias clearly. He talked about Affle’s business after it came public but when he talked about BCG he only mentioned from 2016. It’s very easy to understand why he did that – BCG didn’t have good growth rates from 2016 to 2021 and throughout the video he was always highlighting about that period more. It’s not a secret that almost every company will come public when they expect to have higher growth rates. In Affle’s case he took into consideration from 2018 (the year before it came public) to till now but why didn’t he do the same with BCG? BCG came public in 2012 so if we take revenue of the previous year (2011) then it was 467crs and in 2014 it was 1663crs. Growth rates of a mature company will be way different than that of a young newly listed company.
Revenue – 167crs
Profit – 28crs
Revenue – 719crs
Profit – 172crs
Revenue up 4.3 times and profits up 6.14 times
Revenue – 467crs
Profit – 50crs
2014 – 1663crs
Profit – 221crs
Revenue up 3.5 times and profits up 4.42 times.
This was a very good growth rate back then and remember that the industry didn’t have the tail-winds that it has now. Growing 3.5 times in 2011-14 was way tougher than growing 4.3 times in 2018-21.
How many people were using mobile phones back then vs how many are using now? How was the technology back then? Were the phones, computers etc advanced like they are now? Was the internet speed very fast back then like it is now? Was the internet cost so cheap back then like it is now?? How many people were using internet back then and how many are using now? Was it so improved like it is now? We had 3G internet back then but we have 4G now and won’t it make any difference for online advertising companies?
Also why didn’t he talk about the industry’s struggles before 2020? Almost every ad-tech company (except TTD) didn’t do well during 2016-20 and why not talk about that? He criticized BCG for wasting all the money but why didn’t he talk about the changes in the technology that forced BCG to make big changes? Digital ad technology moved to programmatic advertising and BCG had to adapt to that then later Apple, Google and other companies made changes to privacy policies and was that process so smooth? How many companies went out of business (or got acquired) during that period because they couldn’t keep up with the changes?
If you are gonna talk about that period and the investments made then talk about the whole industry and other companies too. It’s simple as that.December 5, 2021 at 4:33 am #12930
Then he made fun of BCG’s recent business growth (about more people spending more time online). I don’t know what to say about this. Why did Zoom make so much money last year? Why all the ad-tech companies are having great growth rates since 2020? Aren’t more people spending lot of time online? Why cloud companies are doing very well?
The stock didn’t go up 10x because of OPM or ROE or ROCE or FCF. It went up because it was so undervalued. And it was undervalued because of many things. Being profitable and labeled an NPA had an impact and declaring one of your subsidiaries bankrupt played a part, losing one of your subsidiary in a court case played a part, ageing VC, PE funds selling your shares played a part and Axis taking you to courts played a part. So our actor should’ve studied about all these first and then he should’ve made that video.
People worship these “holier than thou” attitude people (especially in bull markets) and they think that these people know everything about everything just because they have more followers. It’s left to people whether to take self-proclaimed experts like him seriously or not. I’m not saying he doesn’t have any skills or anything like that and also I’m not judging his skills. My point is he is way too biased and he doesn’t know the history of BCG properly and he was very selective and highlighted only the negatives.
At the end it was clear that he didn’t want anyone to buy BCG’s shares and he wanted current investors to sell their shares and that time I realized that he made that video only to convey that message. He should’ve come to the point at the beginning itself instead of acting for 20mins or so. Total waste of time.
As the company grows more and becomes more popular, many people who have missed the bus will start criticizing it for silly reasons. Some will criticize because they won’t understand anything properly. Some criticisms will be valid and some won’t make sense at all. Some people hate Mr.Shankar Sharma because he invested in BCG and others will hate BCG because Mr.Sharma invested in it. Usually in the investment world (or in life generally) everyone will hate everyone and all have “holier than thou” attitude. We should get used to all these things.December 6, 2021 at 11:29 am #12933NIRAJ1Registered Boarder
Good moring to Admin and Logan and other long term investor.
I am the person woh started thread on Value piker.com for Lycos internet- way of digitalizaion.-Now Brightcom.
Congratulation to all my longterm investor friends who kept patience for almost 7-8 yrs- I am investor in BCG-Lycos since 2014.
I got very much negative critisicim in value picker and left that board. But my convicion never got down. I increased my holding from 30k to 100k+ during 7 yrs.
I think admin was also following value picker of my thread.But their management had closed the topic whcih was again restarted recetly by somebody.I stated and gave address of this website but didnot listion and accusing same way as on moncontrol.com. I deleted my posts their and decided not to educate them.
For these many years I was serching details about Business of BCG but not sucessful.
I follwoed this website and thank you admin for your efford.
our group becomes very much strong as we have common goal.Logan and other fellow gave very good explinaton for each and every detail- I admire them.
I kept my head cool and strong and remain invested in BCG for all this years. Now we are getting fruits for it.
I also invested 6lkhs for my daughter in Bcg at diffferant level whcih got doubled.
About recent video on youtube I found he is very much ignorant and biased as mention by Logan. We ahve to ignore him.
Again Thank you to all my friends..
I am doctor by profession.
I request Admin to delete this post if he finds that i might broke rule of this website by giving my identification
NIRAJ PARIKHDecember 7, 2021 at 9:36 am #12934JackSparrow13Registered Boarder
Invested since 2014
2 things ( contrarion views perhaps) –
1. Brightcom is a stock which will divide many, especially if one goes through the process of looking at looking at equity size, promoter holding, pledged. But every metric has a story behind it, as highlighted by seniors here multiple times. I sometimes feel Brightcom is as unloved in India, as Amazon was in US in its initial years. There is only 1 way to remain invested here perhaps. Either you believe the management, or you dont.
2. I have personally benefitted a lot from Valuepikr, since there the focus is on uncovering the negatives in as passionate a manner, as telling the company story. Just take any random share (which has 100+ posts) in Valuepikr. Pretty sure you will be benefitted. I personally also follow the portfolio threads of a few boarders, to understand their viewpoints while buying, selling shares. Obviously trolls can be everywhere.
More we learn, better for us.
Both this website and Valuepikr, have guided and helped me a lot.December 7, 2021 at 5:41 pm #12935Investor_2022Registered Boarder
Brightcom Group acquired 100% of MediaMint for about Rs.566 crores in
cash and stock.
◦ Rs. 360 crores in cash to be paid at closing.
◦ Rs. 170 crores in BCG stock.
◦ Rs. 36 crores to be paid in six months from closing.
MediaMint’s Annualized Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately
Rs. 67 crores. MediaMint’s Revenue for the FY22 March ending is
expected to be Rs. 187 crores.
Attachments:December 7, 2021 at 8:54 pm #12937BrightspotRegistered BoarderDecember 7, 2021 at 9:47 pm #12938
Nice find @explorer…You were spot on
Thanks SKR garu for this wonderful news…Congratulations to all BCG employees and investors … Welcome MediaMint to BCG family.
My thoughts on this announcement
– 3x of Sales and 8.5x of EBITDA is a good deal…In comparison to the recent crazy valuations of IT services companies (in the name of digital and analytics business) …Also considering MediaMint is growing fast at 40% CAGR with good EBITDA margins
– EBITDA of 35.8% seems to be better than 26.1% of BCG’s recent Q2
– Revenue per employee is 14.4 lakhs…In-line with general DM company’s business and also equivalent or better than some listed IT services companies, can grow higher with BCG…take for example Happiest Minds with around 4000 employees and estimated 1000cr revenue is generating 25L per employee and is trading at around 19x sales 🙂
– Key Management people along with one of the co-founder is going to stay with the company, huge positive. Also more management hands for SKR. Note, Aditya Vuchi is a serial entrepreneur and is also running other businesses, he would be looking to improve them further with these funds and so will be moving on after 6 months which is enough for a smooth transition
– Both companies compliment each other…Huge cross selling opportunities across their business (both has marquee large clients)… Imagine BCG running ads for Netflix or Expedia or NYT, the marketing budgets of these companies will be running in some billions of dollars each… a small share of it to BCG will add huge to its numbers.
– Also they can build together new solutions and take it to the market. We would see impact of this from next FY onwards post integration
– BCG’s DM division + MediaMint together might be one of the top 3 or top 5 DM companies based out of India
– 170cr in the form of stock … Need to be seen if it’s going to be equity diluation and if so at what price or from ESOP pool … Even in case of equity dilution, it will not be a big number considering the avg. price of BCG share in last 3 months
– Impact on EPS, ROE, and FCF needs to be seen…in my view all these ratios will be moving higher
– SKR is walking the talk…he is nicely ticking the boxes one by one for the future exponential growth of the company … Remember he once said that we are looking at a growth similar to previous period, (I guess between 2006 to 2010) where the company has grown from 10 to 100 million revenueDecember 7, 2021 at 10:35 pm #12939adminKeymasterTopic Author
Thanks @hw_tw for a neat summary.
@explorer – that was brilliant exploration.
Congratulations to all the investors. Feels really great to see all the events unfolding as envisaged. Thanks to management for walking the talk. Will bring lot of credibility. With the combined workforce (co-founder, their management and employees) we will have more brilliant brains working on a mission to aim bigger goals in the Ad-Tech space.December 7, 2021 at 10:58 pm #12944
@brightspot, I think we’ll have to wait till the AGM to get an answer for that. Maybe (my guess) it’s a dilution because when they gave that notice for board meeting, they have mentioned as board meeting for preferential issue so going by that they may issue more shares. The good thing (as mentioned by @hw_tw) is that MediaMint’s top management team are staying with BCG and also getting BCG’s shares.
From now onwards everyone should be ready to see/hear negative comments about Vuchi Media / MediaMint because it is being acquired by BCG. Some people will say that this MediaMint is different and that BCG is acquiring a fake company. They get this confusion because it’s official name is Vuchi Media. Just like people used to say Brightcom was not part of Brightcom Group, now they’ll say there’s a real different MediaMint which is not associated with Vuchi Media etc.
I hope they merge this company with the parent company so that the standalone numbers improve. I’m sick of seeing comments criticizing the parent/standalone company just because it doesn’t make that much money.
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