General Discussion

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  • #7016
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    Hi Anand. Please do not create new topics to ask queries. Use the general discussion thread instead.

    Thanks for sharing the material.

    This query was also raised in the last concall to which Mr.Suresh Reddy said will be clarified later point of time. Also there was
    was discussion related to this in our forum sometime back that it belongs to Brightcom Group.

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    #7017
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    Here is a feedback of one long term investor, please do not take it as a buy or sell decision.

    “Most of the investors now understood the company and its business due to the awareness given by brightcom investors forum. Earlier there were negative news n negativity in market as there was no transparency n no clarification but now every answer is available in black n white. Now all investors have regained confidence in this stock. Now stock has become a Gem Stock wherein the supply of shares will decrease in coming days. Even in red market like today, investors will not sell because once you sell you will not be able to enter so easily.
    In today’s scenario best thing is to Lock your shares for few months as this is going to rise manyfold even in bear market.
    Stay safe, stay healthy n stay invested
    Bhupinder Singh”

    I sincerely thank Saul Goodman for his contribution. All your series of posts and the research work you have presented has helped lot of investors in systematically understanding each aspect of Brightcom.

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    #7018
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thank you Admin, glad I could be of help.

    Without any facts some people were spreading negative and false information about the company and the CEO.

    I just wanted to put out the facts and my posts should not be taken for buy or sell calls.

    I got a great platform to share my work and I should be thanking you for that. It is not easy to create and maintain the forum and we all long term investors would like to thank you for doing such an amazing job.

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    #7019
    Diana Horton
    Registered Boarder

    post # 7018

    Dear Mr Goodman

    May I take the Oppourtunity to thank you on behalf of the BCG community for all the Detailed Informative and Research backed Analytical posts that you have posted over a short period of time.

    Its a Pleasure to have you in this Forum

    Hope to meet you in person, in this years AGM, if Possible

    Warm Regards…..

    ……………..DH

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    #7030
    BrightVenus
    Registered Boarder

    A ET NOW video link on post covid trends:

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    #7031
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Dears, Please find the link for 2019 annual report.
    https://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/AnnualReport/532368/5323680319.pdf
    BCG is not included in the revenue of Lycose inc. (page no.5)
    page no.34 more workforce force for AL And ML
    shareholding very interesting. ( page no.39)

    All, please go through this whenever you get time.

    Attachments:
    1. 5323680319-1.pdf
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    #7053
    sandyc316
    Registered Boarder

    @jmathew The distribution of shareholding is indeed very interesting! Let me see if I have got it correct – Investors who own more than 10k shares i.e. nominal value > 20k (for a Face value of Rs 2) own almost 90% of all shares. Assuming all of these are serious investors (a safe assumption) and would be willing to hold till a fair value is realized, I must say it augurs really well for the stock price in the future.

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    #7047
    pranil
    Registered Boarder

    Hi Saulmate.. few points I want to highlight.

    Bcg’ growth in last 5-6 year is flattish in USD terms.( this is despite they reinvested almost 1000 cr in business from their profits) While all the companies you have mentioned are growing much higher some of them above 50% cagr. I understand market values future and that’s why high growth rates are important.

    TTD or Affle though have/had lower sales, they continued growth and never gave any cashflow issues for limitations to growth. We try to get convince that BCG’s problem of cashflow will be resolved after LOC… firstly who was stopping them to get LOC 6 years back? Does it not show as management didn’t evaluated this option and shareholders suffer for this?

    If people in india can understand Affle business model and they don’t understand BCG’s who’s fault is this?? Shareholders? Investors? Or managements?

    One more important aspect considered for valuation is promoter track record… unfortunately none of investors made profits in BCG, infact almost everyone lost capital. So there is impression that they are insensitive to shareholders.

    You can see one more company in this field apart from TTD and Affle….Criteo… see the gap in their Valuation; this is only due to growth rates. Plz note criteo had no valuation issues few years back but despite that their growth is flat and you see they valued at 5 PE and TTD at 145. So we miss the business model/technology factor, some company has superior technology and they grow faster than others… cash to burn is not only one constraint.

    Off course BCG deserves better valuation but if valuation be at 5 PE, 50 PE or 150PE will depend on the growth rates and how sensitive is management towards investors. Keeping my fingers crossed.

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    #7048
    pranil
    Registered Boarder

    Dear Admin, I hope you post my post… there is view that you allow only positive view about company and management. We should be fair, praise them for good dids and criticise for wrong. After all our intention is to maximise value for us. Why a longterm investor is critical of management? Is it because he want people to sell shares?? Only to create positive pressure on management to hear investors

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    #7052
    pranil
    Registered Boarder

    I m wondering why my posts not showing still. Seems this forum is to pump up the prices only. Every one says I am not recommending to buy but then they don’t allow any criticism or different view. May be because it risks exposing negative side of company

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    #7049
    pranil
    Registered Boarder

    Criteo and Trade desk both entered in market in 2016; criteo ipo was priced at usd 31 while that of TDS usd 18. Today criteo is quoting at 12 usd and TTD at 350 usd. Main reason is that criteo did not show growth while TTD is growing at handsome rate quarter after quarter. Growth is must for good valuation

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    #7059
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    1>

    Hi Pranil, thank you for highlighting those points.

    Most of the points you have highlighted have been discussed in various threads but I will answer all those points. I will be answering through my perspective and taking or leaving it depends on you. Some of my answers will be based on facts and some will be my opinions.

    We, in the forum, are giving out useful information (some of that information are based on facts and some maybe our opinions). We are not asking everyone to agree with our opinions. We are doing this in our free time and we are not charging any fees for that.

    You should appreciate the Admin for creating and maintaining this wonderful forum. If not for this forum, you wouldn’t have got valuable information (that too for free).

    Your posts are harsh, you can’t simply tell us that the forum is for pumping up the prices. You should first ask critical questions and then if we don’t answer properly you can accuse us.

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    #7060
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    2>

    The Admin is doing all these in his free time, you should appreciate that. Sometimes even my posts won’t be showing up because of some technical issues, you need to have patience.

    If you ask critical questions we will answer but if your intention is to make others take buy or sell decisions then we can’t help you. There is no positive or negative bias in this forum. If you want answers you can post important questions.

    We can’t answer your questions on price and market sentiment. If you make baseless allegations, we will choose to ignore you. We don’t have time or energy to reply to all your questions. Please understand that. You can find many answers on other threads too, you have to look at them, we can’t guide you there.

    Don’t take information in some of the articles in the forum for buy or sell calls.

    You are lucky to have this forum. Please make good use of it.

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    #7061
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    3>

    Now, coming to your questions.

    *Your observation is wrong on BCG’s growth, it’s not flattish, BCG’s profit in 2014 was Rs.220 cr (EPS 4.64), and in 2019 it was Rs.443 cr (EPS 9.32). You can see the profit has doubled. In US dollars you have to look at conversion rate every year or rather every day. You can’t take today’s conversion rate and apply it to profits made in the past.

    *You say that other companies have also grown more than 50%, if you look at all the companies you can see that most of them come to the markets i.e. have IPO when they are having high growth. You can see that with AFFLE, TTD etc. BCG too had high growth when it was smaller. I’ll leave it to you to understand various factors that determine growth. You can look at other articles or you can Google about growth.

    Yes, market values future but you should remember that Market is not right all the time and it has misjudged BCG all these years (check other threads like Market Sentiment, Reasons for the fall in stock price of BCG etc).

    You have to look at various factors before judging growth and cash flows. If you see TTD and AFFLE, they are overvalued and promoters won’t mind issuing more shares. They can use that money for growth. If BCG issues more shares then we have to dilute so much to raise little cash. TTD can raise cash easily because it’s easy to raise cash in the US. The interest rates are also low there. If you look at BCG’s operating cash flow, its healthy but problems come when you look at free cash.

    TTD may not have cash flow issues but look at their receivables and payables. Receivables are almost double their revenue and payables are also more than their revenue. Coming to AFFLE, it’s a small company and they came to the market recently, we have to see how they will perform in the future. I won’t be doing any favor to you if I speculated on AFFLE’s business.

    BCG, all these years grew more using their profits but there are limitations to that, you need additional funds when you get bigger. As you know even Reliance recently raised cash.

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    #7062
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    4>

    *You have asked why BCG waited many years for LOC and why not earlier. I have discussed this in previous posts but I’ll explain it to you once again. BCG tried to raise money back in 2017 from White Oak. The amount was $150 million (around 1000 crores). I don’t know whether it was debt or equity, but it would’ve helped the company in many ways. First they could’ve settled Lycos case with Daum then they could’ve used the remaining amount for growth and to sort out receivable issues.

    When Daum got to know about this, they dragged White Oak to the court and subpoenaed them to reveal the details. Since White Oak wasn’t involved in the operations of the company, they backed off. Nobody wants to get involved in a legal case. This also made other potential investors to back off.

    Now tell me, will other companies give money to BCG knowing they will be dragged to courts? Please understand the complexity of the problems, there are no straight forward answers to that. Management has tried many options but they had many challenges like DAUM case, Rs.150 cr write off etc.

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    #7063
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    5>

    *You should remember BCG came to market in 2012 and AFFLE came in 2019. When BCG came there was no proper access to internet in our country and even if some had access, it was too expensive. Thanks to JIO, the whole country got internet at cheap rates (starting from 2017). The company has put up many presentations on how the industry works and to educate shareholders only they are holding conference calls after every quarter.

    Now, when AFFLE came to the markets in 2019, all had internet access and they could find more things about the company and the industry. AFFLE got all the hype and promotion because Microsoft and The Times Group have stake in it. People will be curious to know more about AFFLE because of Microsoft’s investment.

    When BCG came to the market people thought of it as an IT company and they never cared to understand its business but now when some people understand the business they have overlooked BCG because it was a penny stock for many years. And also because of DAUM case many are not interested.

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    #7064
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    6>

    *You are saying that management is insensitive to investors. I don’t agree with you at all. If the management was insensitive then why did they hold conference calls all these years? You can see in the conference call that Mr.Reddy answers to each and every questions asked.

    Yes, I too have complaints about their response or rather no response to our mails and calls. But we have to understand that people call up the company and ask only about the stock price, and sometimes they ask details about sensitive information which the company can’t give.

    I’ve asked many people before and I’ll ask you too, does the company become good if you make profits from your shares? Is the company bad if the share price goes down and will it suddenly become good if the share price increases? Have you ever looked at the problems through the CEO’s perspective?

    Would you solve the problems first or would you make shareholders happy and let the business sink?

    Everyone loses capital only if they sell the shares, you should understand how markets work, they won’t go up just because you want it to go up. You need to have patience. Nobody asked you to buy the shares, you should know the risks in investing in equities. You should do all the research before investing, nobody will guide you. I’m saying this once again, you are lucky to have a forum like this where you get answers for all your queries.

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    #7065
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    7>

    Let’s assume the company instead of using money for business growth, pays dividends, let’s say Rs.10 and because of this they lose all their clients. But looking at the dividend the share price goes up to Rs.300 in a few months and the company reports losses because of losing clients and the share falls to less than Rs.10. Will you be happy at that time because the CEO made shareholders happy by giving dividends. No, right?

    A stock trading at Rs.1 can trade above Rs.100 next year but if the company loses clients this year, it will be very hard to get them back later. For BCG, clients and shareholders both are important.

    Remember, the stock price can go up anytime but it’s very hard to resolve all the issues and bring the company back on track.

    Thankfully, the problems BCG has are not so big but the management needs time to resolve them. You have to understand that.

    So looking at all these we should understand that the stock performs well only if the company and its business is doing well. As we know, the company is improving its business, give it more time (don’t ask me how much time) and let the management resolve all the issues.

    Please don’t look at stocks as some symbols that you trade, look at them as pieces of business and take decisions after evaluating all the pros and cons. If you want answers for prices then I’m not the guy for that.

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    #7066
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    8>

    *Coming to Criteo, it didn’t come to the markets in 2016, it came in 2013. You can’t compare Criteo and TTD just because they both are digital marketing companies. You have to understand both their businesses. Criteo’s revenue mostly comes from cookies and now because of privacy regulations and few years back because of General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), their business was impacted. Recently Google made changes to their cookie policy and wants to phase out support for third-party cookies in Chrome within two years and that also impacted Criteo. Market giving valuation depends on various factors and growth is one among them. I don’t know how TTD targets ads but it’s business is different from Criteo’s. For Criteo to get back on track, they need time.

    See there are disruptions happening all the time but Brightcom has come out stronger all the time, if their share traded higher, they could’ve grown even more. Bigger companies can survive disruptions easily.

    I don’t know at what PE Brightcom will trade in the future but I know its massively undervalued looking at all the factors. I hope you got all the answers you were looking for.

    If you think sharing important information in this forum is for pumping up the price then I feel sorry for you. I would’ve neglected your posts because most of the answers to your queries are already discussed in other threads. But you have to understand, your posts may influence other investors to take drastic actions.

    Be critical but don’t post anything without evidence or without any proper facts.

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    #7068
    VALUEBUYER001
    Registered Boarder

    Dear Saul Goodman thanks for the pains undertaken by you for writing such a long Posts giving so many information nto all thanks again sir

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