Fundamentals and Business Related Activities

Viewing 20 posts - 41 through 60 (of 391 total)
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  • #7853
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    3>

    When it comes to intangibles, BCG has their own proprietary platform like Compass, which they develop on their own and that may not result in profits immediately. Also the whole industry is changing to programmatic advertising and as you know we can’t expect to get profits immediately in new areas, so BCG may have tested that and they may need time to adapt to that.

    When @bitran brought up the topic about bold-win, he didn’t say that BCG hid something from us and I also didn’t say that BCG is hiding something. All I said was that there’s lack of clarity about few things. There’s a big difference in that.

    You are trying to make it a big thing about this. You have posted that I “admitted” about that. There’s nothing wrong in admitting about confusions, like everyone I also have confusions and instead of making it a big thing like you are doing now, I want clarifications on that. Just asking for clarifications doesn’t mean that the company is hiding something. I’ll always comment on things that I know (unlike you) so I want clarifications on those before I start commenting.

    Regarding Bold-win, maybe it is like edgecase (Ingress ventures). BCG may have made an agreement to buy equity in that in the future and at present they may provide manpower and technology for that. Yes, there’s no proper information about that and in some cases because of various reasons they may not reveal complete details until some material developments happen. They may not want to hype about something and later when it fails then investors may start accusing them of weird things (just like you are doing now).

    As @bitran said BCG may test the waters now and if they succeed in that they may reveal the details.

    1+
    #7854
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    4>

    Finally, I don’t understand what’s the point in hiding details. Since BCG is a public company, the scrutiny will be more and all these years people have asked the CEO directly about many things, some have even asked whether the profits are real or fake etc, so after all these, why would he hide something?

    Also if BDO Global or EY found something wrong with BCG’s numbers, they would’ve reported it to the authorities by now. And the bank that gives LOC to BCG will have done all the homework and they would never give loans if they get to know that BCG is hiding something. The governments in USA, Israel, European countries will be very strict and they would’ve taken action if something was wrong.

    Anyway, there’s nothing more to add here and I want to stop it now. Like you said last time, let the readers come to conclusion on this. I have given information about CRITEO also and I’m sure they will understand BCG’s problems.

    4+
    #7855
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    @bitran, please write frequently in the forum. We need someone like you who understands reality. The forum will get even better if you share your opinions. From now itself we can start preparing questions to be asked in the next conference call and your suggestions will help us a lot.

    #7857
    VALUEBUYER001
    Registered Boarder

    Dear Saul Goodman Ji, thanks sir for the pains undertaken by you to write about BCG in a detailed way.very glad you are sharing lot of your knowledge in the forum.your good work must continue.dont bother about some people who are intentionally irritating you.thanks again

    #7858
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thank you @VALUEBUYER001 for understanding. I have no issues with anyone and its just that I don’t want anyone to have confusions about the company. All these we have suffered a lot because of those confusions and we didn’t have a platform to share our opinions and we should thank the Admin for creating this forum.

    I try to give out facts and some people may not like what I write and I have no problem with that but they should also give facts for their arguments. I don’t have any problem to change my views/opinions if they prove me wrong with facts.

    Not an apple to apple comparison but even the great Hindustan Unilever has not grown its revenues in the last 5 years. In 2016 HUL’s revenue was Rs.35,000 Cr and in 2020 it is Rs.40,415 Cr, only 15% increase. It’s profit in 2016 was Rs.4151 Cr and in 2020 it is Rs.6756 Cr, that’s 62% growth. So people looking at only revenues will be disappointed and when they look at the profits they’ll be happy.

    Its easy for us to say that HUL had over Rs.27000 Cr in profits (5 years combined) and still they grew their revenues by only Rs.5000 Cr but the reality will be different. The people running the business will know better than us.

    Likewise BCG has also improved its cash flows every year and if they get the LOC they’ll improve more, there are genuine problems that the company is facing and everyone has to understand that. The CEO won’t simply make up those problems. Its not wrong if people ask those question but they should understand that the CEO or the management will know better about that.

    Share price wise I can’t say anything because I don’t know how market will react to events but business wise I trust the CEO.

    #7859
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    @logicalspeak – you are again coming with same stuff in spite of agreeing not to repeat. Share supporting facts when you put forward some serious allegation. You are creating a atmosphere which is disruptive and against the forum guidelines. Please see that you do not repeat it.

    2+
    #7861
    Logicalspeak
    Registered Boarder

    @ Dear Admn,

    I acknowledge your message at #7859 above.

    I am not adding anything further but leave the same to the readers of this platform and consider the intelligence of readers’ of this platform much higher than the collective intelligence of all boarders who are posting here.

    Therefore, let them read all messages and come to their own conclusion.

    3+
    #7862
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    @T9C – I think you are not aware that launch of b-local product was announced in the month of March itself on social media & their website and we have discussed about it here #post-6026

    If you cannot share any information, please do not try to push something baseless. I already see that yourself and @logicalspeak are trying to make this another mmb forum.

    #7863
    T9C
    Registered Boarder

    @admin,

    you read my post(0#7843) again, it was about informing exchanges. They can post many things on social media.
    My point was why did not they inform exchanges immediately once they launched it.
    Do exchange rules say that listed companies can inform about any development after it becomes success only or whenever they want?
    I was just exposing the issues based on facts, Why you are not allowing even small bit of criticism?

    4+
    #7864
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    This is not about my reluctance to accept the criticism but am skeptical that there is some agenda by some boarders(who may be from mmb) to disrupt the meaningful discussions happening here. Bitran brought a very good point and logicalspeak interfered to ruin it and being aggressive towards Saul which is not an accepted behavior. Henceforth, both @T9C and @logicalspeak have been blocked.

    #7887
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    #7894
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    This is what’s mentioned in Onomagic website-

    Onomagic is part of the We- Endeavor media group – a holding company investing in and working with global media and digital marketing companies. The group’s companies share access to powerful technology, an elite content team and two decades worth of media know-how.

    What I wrote in my earlier posts are correct, the companies which are part of the We-Endeavor Group will share technologies and manpower.

    BCG will announce to the markets when any material developments happen, if they start announcing each and every initiative they plan then they’ll have to announce everyday. Some among those will pick up and some will fail.

    Ad tech industry is very complex and also dynamic and the companies will have to come out with new products, initiatives frequently to challenge the big players who have almost 80% of the market share.

    I’ve been saying this from the beginning, running a business is not as easy as sitting and commenting without any knowledge.

    There are idiots who don’t belive the profits, they don’t understand the working capital needs of the company. Just because someone doesn’t understand the business it doesn’t mean it’s fraud.

    Even without additional funding the company has improved it’s cash flow and if they get the LOC then the company can improve further, we shareholders will benefit from that. The company will pay dividends or buyback shares or it can acquire other companies.

    If the share price traded higher the company didn’t have to worry about raising funds but that’s not the case.

    #7895
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    As mentioned in the presentation, with Onomagic’s technology, the publishers can concentrate more on content.

    In 2020 and 2021, there will be so much content to publish. Publishers have to concentrate on COVID-19, elections in the US and after the pandemic there will be more news on economic recovery etc.

    Getting the LOC is very important and it’ll benefit the company a lot. We can see The Trade Desk growing 40-50% higher and if BCG can get funds regularly I’m guessing they can grow at least 20% every year.

    #7897
    VALUEBUYER001
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks dear Saul Goodman Ji for your energetic posts which rejuvenates tired long termers of BCG. I hope BCG will get loc before August end

    3+
    #7898
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    1>

    Thanks @VALUEBUYER001, my intention is to present facts and taking it or leaving it depends on the readers. It’s just that I don’t want people to believe in false/fake information that many people try to spread. With BCG there’s so much false information circulating.

    I always want people to understand facts before they take decisions emotionally. I won’t manipulate others like that logicalspeak did. You can see my posts, I also criticize the management but my criticisms will be more realistic, I won’t simply make up baseless allegations or conspiracy theories and whenever there is someone making baseless allegation I always try to correct them.

    All these years the market never really understood or recognized the true value of BCG. People always compared BCG with typical IT companies and part of the problem lies with how these online business websites present BCG, they always compared BCG with IT companies and people believed that. Those websites never really understood BCG’s business so they just put it under IT companies list. Even after many years these websites haven’t changed that.

    BCG is not a typical IT company and those companies don’t have working capital needs like BCG has. The CEO always told us about this problem but no one really understood that and they always asked only about profits. The profits are very much real but all of those profits couldn’t be converted to cash is the problem.

    #7899
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    2>

    The company has few problems and all those can be resolved easily if they get additional funds. DAUM, Axis and other issues could have been resolved by now if the share traded higher but that’s not the case. That is why LOC is very important at this point. Axis, DAUM and OAK selling are all important but according to me LOC is more important. It’s a solution to almost all the problems.

    The CEO is not dumb to keep the growth stagnant all these years and by doing that he won’t achieve anything. Many make baseless allegation that he’s trying to keep the price low. I don’t understand how he could do that when there’s so much scrutiny. And if he really did that then he wouldn’t have given preferred shares at 10 to Muskaan and other 2 investors, he would have told them to buy in open market when the price was trading at 3 or 4.

    The problem with some retail investors is that, if they don’t understand the situation they simply start blaming the CEO or the management. They simply start comparing with random companies and to correct them I’ve to write lengthy posts. When someone accuses the CEO of manipulating prices or keeping growth stagnant, I ask for proof and they don’t come back because they don’t have any proofs for their accusations.

    The investor complaints for all the quarters will be zero always, if these people come here and complain then why can’t they give the same complaint to authorities? Their agenda is very simple to understand, they want to manipulate others’ sentiments.

    #7900
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    3>

    Every company will have disagreements on taxes to be paid. Tax disagreements is very common when a company does operations in many countries but some people will try to make a big deal out of it, they spread fake information on that saying taxmen are investigating etc. If something close to that had happened then NCLT or Debts Recovery Tribunal would’ve found something by now. Simply accusing something without proof is very silly and childish and clearly shows their agenda.

    The company publicly can’t give complete details on the problems they face because of competitive reasons. BCG’s competitors may see all those and they may take advantage of that. The CEO can’t address that in the conference call also. They will explain about the problems if we visit their office. We should understand that.

    #7932
    aindia
    Registered Boarder

    2020_BCG_After a Roller Coster Ride-Ripe for scaling upto a conservative STOCK Valuation.Some triggers to look forward to:

    Check “comments”against each of the listed triggers.
    ———————————————-———————————————-———————————————-————————————

    A.  Venture Capital and Private Equity Firms-Exit Impact :
    Passport Capital, Eight Capital and Venus Capital sold during 2013-16,Sansar Capital during 2014-17, Everest during 2018-19 and Oak in 2020.

    Comment: Rs.150 cr (legacy) write off 2012-13 was the first of the triggers for the above exits through the period up to now.

    B. Perception about Management (cloud of negativity-trust factor / write-offs in the past /delays in addressing TRs)

    Comment:
    So far management attention has been drawn majorly to post-merger legacy issues- write offs, paring down of debt.

    C.SIGNIFICANT IMPAIRMENT: Sizeable Impairment of Balance Sheet, of more than INR.865 cr, in FY 2020, declared out of the blue was un-anticipated by shareholders. 

    Comment :
    Amount, certainly, is huge. Management, chose to bite the bullet (accumulated over the years), when the Bal. Sheet size (Assets) could accommodate/ absorb. What is understood here, realistically declare the redundant/ non- productive assets (could be mix of legacy assets came through ( around 14%) acquisitions, and / or freshly invested but that have lost the relevance). It could also have resulted from the DD process requirement of LoC provider.

    D. STRAIN OF LEGACY DEBT: Multiple Bank loans contracted at high cost( around 14%) prior to reverse merger, left a lasting strain so far.Initially pared (from 2013) some big component of them.

    Comment:
    O/s legacy loans turned NPAs. The tragedy has been that these loans have nothing to do with generation of top and bottom lines. However, they certainly impacted Stand Alone financials under the line item- Interest Expenses.
    Company therefore accepted OTS offers, closed SBI and Canara Bank loans. Already pared significant part of Axis OTS offer. Company is actively pursuing the closure process, negotiating the last contours to pay off and earn the coveted Debt- Free status.

    E. BCG is way too ahead of its competition due to its first mover advantage backed by multiple providers of technologies that help in minimising Fraudulent Traffic.

    Comment:
    Consolidating Tech Combos such as DM,AdTech,AI, ML

    F. Industry canvass on a spiralling growth path. Industry drivers are at this time showing a mixed outlook

    Comment: BCG took the early warning seriously , began working closely with multiple vendors to focus on creating fraud free traffic.

    G. Unaudited June ‘20-results are likely to be healthier

    Comment:
    BCG well prepped to capture , in their favour, incremental business from DM industry weaklings due to cleaner traffic

    H. Significant YoY EPS Growth is to be expected (2021 over 2020). Consistently healthy and sustainable PAT figures QoQ, which are expected to grow as we move into next decade (FY2021-30 and beyond).

    Comment:
    Let’s look out for clues from June Qtr results EPS Growth is expected to be material in the election year ( FY2021)

    I. A fresh beginning on DIVIDEND- made an announcement in the recent past,a paltry one at that.

    Comment:
    Subtle clue to ease of pressure on REAL CASH generation.
    Dividend Yield (on FV of Rs 2 and even on recent lows) should be very healthy over the period: 2021-2025.

    J. The management for the first time began to hint at India as a territory to bet on.

    Comment:
    This incremental business would drive top line and bottom line growths and margins in the coming years.

    K. Prospect of the pending settlements on the horizon:

    Comment:
    While settling the outstanding issues,
    BCG could make significant savings (delta from Provisions to Actual Payables- including to 3 of Indian banks, Daum)

    L. Entry of one or two MFs/ FIs:

    Comment:
    As it happens, it would be an added endorsement of the Quality of Management and the Financials.

    M. PLEDGED Shares: Very High % of Promoters under pledge
 

    Comment:
    Shows promoters’ conviction about growing business.
    More recently, the % of promoters’ pledged shares is progressively dropping (from 60 to 50 to 33 
and a basis recent debt clearances a further drop is to expected)

    N. DAUM –Long -Drawn Battle:Root of negative influences on various performance metrics for a long period.

    Comment:
    On hind sight, conclusion could be that it was a battle well worth fighting on merit –now a closure on the anvil. Daum, to end this thorn in the flesh, may have conceded a few million dollars.

    O. DM/AdTech are least understood:

    Comment:
    Covid-19 didn’t leave that choice, any more.

    P. Free Cash Flows – A sorry story:

    Trade Receivables impacted throughout an otherwise growth phase of the Company.
 


    Comment:
    LoC attempt is precisely to ease the stress (of TR) on business growth in the very near term. We can expect 2020-21 to spring a pleasant surprise,should the LoC happen quickly in the period ahead of US Elections.
 
While the absolute number is as big as Rs.983 cr, the growth trends are suggestive of “less than proportional” increases in TR, compared to growth in Topline. This could also be eased, on the back of Annual Revenues crossing the $500mn.

    Not too long ago TTD ( Trade Desk) landed with an LoC of $150 mn, suggesting that there is a clear appetite for it.

    Q.We should be looking for the following triggers for growth in free cash flows:
    1. Once Axis Bank is out , Debt Free Status, on prospective basis, releases annually INR 15 cr ( interest expense line item).
    2. Once Daum is declared as settled, Lycos’s performance should throw up incremental revenues and profits.
    3. The growth in margins/ profits coming from the low cost ( for TTD it is around 2.2%) LoC.
    4. Incremental Releases from the deployment of LoC monies in strategic partnerships/ investments in start ups.
    5. Growth in fraud free traffic, longer screen times aided by Corona and US Elections.
    6. Delta ( positive) between Excess provisions made vs actual payments to the likes of Daum and Banks (as per granted OTS amounts by SBI, Canara Bank and Axis Bank)
    7. ………and the list goes on and on.

    #7942
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    The Trade Desk Is Up 200% Since March. Here’s Why That Could Be Just the Beginning.

    Looking at this article, I’m really excited for the LOC, the sooner the company gets the LOC, the better it will be for us.

    If BCG had additional funds all these years they would’ve grown like TTD but unfortunately because of few outstanding issues they couldn’t.

    #7948
    VALUEBUYER001
    Registered Boarder

    Great dear Saul Goodman Ji

    2+
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