Fundamentals and Business Related Activities

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  • #7989
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    source: https://www.adweek.com/programmatic/ad-tech-unexpected-stock-price-jump-explained/amp/

    #7991
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    2+
    #7992
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    Official disclosure : http://brightcomgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Brightcom-Ownership-Document.pdf

    7+
    #8016
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    Sub: Update on the loan account with Axis Bank (BSE Update: 13 Aug 2020)

    This update is to inform you that after due consultation with the officials at Axis Bank, the company has sent a formal request letter to the bank. The letter elaborated a proposed payment plan in regards to the closure of BCG’s loan account with them. We await an official response from the bank.

    #8088
    aindia
    Registered Boarder

    BCG: Rapid Fire @ 20_AUG_20

    History of Consistently Increasing Sales, Earnings & Cash Flow: Yes.
    Competitive Advantage: Ahead of the curve and sustainable (ISRAEL CONNECT)
    Future Growth Drivers: A Ton of them (some already playing out)
    Conservative Debt: YES (soon to become Debt- Free)
    Debt Equity Ratio: Near ZERO
    Current Ratio: 4.42
    Return on Equity: Above Average@15.7%
    Low CAPEX required to maintain current operations: No (AdTech players have to keep on burning Capex to stay in the hunt)
    Management is holding / buying the stock: Flat so far 39 %.( Grapevine has it that some reporting on creeping acquisition on the cards)
    Price is Under Valued: Yes- grossly for about 3 yrs
    Stock Price is consolidating: Yes- painfully for about 3 yrs
    Stock Price is growing in past years along with EPS growth: Regretfully a big NO

    OTHER CONSOLIDATED Parameters / Metrics:
    Consolidated PE Ratio: 0.85
    Consolidated PB Ratio: 0.13
    Cash Flow: Positive and to shift gears for the better
    Net Profit %: healthy @ 16.34%
    Dividends: paltry and grossly irregular. Tide change, for the better, is to be expected
    Tax: No-Stand Alone PBT has been negative so far. Tide change marginally felt recently. All the overseas subs are shown to be regularly paying taxes basis tax laws of the countries.
    EPS Growth Rate: Healthy in absolute terms, but flat. Tide change, for the better, is to be expected
    Jump in Trailing Result EPS: No. Flat Q4 YoY@ Rs.2.26
    Jump in Quarterly EPS: No -because it follows the seasonally best Dec Qtr.
    Expected Gain in 5 Years: 20 times (CMP@7.5) over FY ‘21- FY ’26
    Mkt Price: 13.02 / 2.46 being 52 Wk High & Low
    Trading Volume: High, expected to turn Low to Moderate (following the past PEs exit)
    Brand Power: No at the present but it could turn to Yes hereafter.
    Corporate Governance, Reputation of Leaders: Market perception is Poor so far. It can only improve
    Fraud reported: No.
    Annual Report: One of the Very Best Hard copies in India
    Expansion Plans: It’s an ongoing process, to stay competitive.

    #8092
    aindia
    Registered Boarder

    FY 2020(AR due before AGM)

    A.Commentary on Audited Consolidated Balance Sheet Items

    1.YoY -LT Borrowings unchanged @ zero
    2.YoY-other LT liabilities unchanged @ zero
    3.YoY, Loans-Current (Short Term Loans and Advances) from Rs.683 cr.to Rs.652 cr)………..POSITIVE
    4 YoY-ST Borrowings down by 46 % (from Rs.67 cr to Rs.36 cr) and after March’20, should be trending to “zero”……POSITIVE
    5.YoY-Other Current Liabilities up 7.7% from Rs.220 cr to Rs.236.7cr…………………….. NEUTRAL.
    6.YoY-LT Loans n advances down 39% from Rs.165 cr to Rs. 100 cr by …..POSITIVE
    7.YoY-Trade Receivables up 9.6 % from Rs.890 cr to Rs.975 cr…………….NEUTRAL
    8.YoY-Non-Current Investments up 11.3 % from Rs.225.5 to Rs.251 cr…………..POSITIVE
    9.YoY-Trade Payables up 20 % from Rs.84.4 cr to Rs.101.5 c r…………….NEUTRAL to POSITIVE.
    10.YoY-(Non-Current) Tangible Assets up, big time, by nearly 37 times from Rs.24.5 cr to Rs.963 cr…………..BIG POSITIVE
    11.YoY-(Non-Current)“Intangible Assets” significantly down from Rs.500 cr to NIL………….. To probe further
    12.YoY-(Non-Current)“Capital Work in Progress ” significantly down from Rs.148 cr to NIL………….. To probe further.
    13.YoY- Cash and cash equivalents grew 16 % from Rs.102.6 cr to Rs.119 cr…………………… POSITIVE
    14.YoY-other CURRENT ASSETS dropped by a big 71% from Rs.541 cr to Rs.158 cr………………. To probe further.
    15. Contingent Liabilities down from Rs 115 cr to NIL…. To probe into.
    ——————————————————————————
    B. P&L -TRENDS

    1.YoY-Total Cost of Revenue up 4.8% from Rs.1969 cr to Rs. 2064 cr whereas, Total Revenue was up 4.97% from Rs. 2578 cr to Rs.2706 cr. …………… POSITIVE
    2.YoY-Direct Cost of Revenue up 4.1% from Rs.1649 cr to Rs.1717 cr whereas Total Revenue was up 4.97% from Rs. 2578cr to Rs.2706 cr. …………… POSITIVE
    3.YoY-Finance/ Interest Cost down from Rs.13.18 cr to Rs.6.3 cr (on way to “ debt-free” status) …….POSITIVE
    4.Employee Benefit Exp. up marginally from Rs.158.5 cr to Rs.160.9 cr. Relative to Total Revenue it is down from 8% to 7.8% …………… POSITIVE
    5.Abs.EBIT, YoY, marginally up from Rs.621.7cr to Rs.623.4 cr.
    6.PBT, YoY, up from Rs.617 cr to Rs.608 cr by 1.5%……….. ………….NEUTRAL
    7.Depreciation /Amortization exp up by 33% from Rs.135 cr to Rs.180 cr……….Sounds PRUDENT.
    8.YoY-PAT is down, marginally, from Rs.444 cr to Rs.440 cr Now in the zone of stabilization……………Neutral to POSITIVE
    9.YoY,the EPS is flat @ Rs.9. EPS growth, expected to pick up……………NEUTRAL/POSITIVE.

    3+
    #8140
    aindia
    Registered Boarder

    Not so obvious game changing trends@BC:

    I would urge you all to shift Focus on to the adauth.com stats of Brightcom, that were tearing away during August 2020.

    Very early on(2015) , you may recall, management was harping on building DIRECT SELLERS relationships, for the reason that they yield huge margins.

    Source: Screen shots of 17 Sep’19, 23 Apr’20 and 29 th Aug’20 ( could not paste here)

    link to track in future:
    https://www.adauth.com/exchanges/brightcom.com

    Like I said, we should now be tracking :

    The mkt share was at 1.8 % (17 Sep’19) an year ago,and now spiked up to 3.3% during this month(Today).
    ——————————————————————
    Growth in Count of DIRECT ACCOUNTS grew (thrice) from:

    17474 on 17Sep’19
    to
    31274 on 23 April’20
    to
    57174 on 29th August’20( Today)

    The above is what separates men from the boys.YoY the growth is an enviable 230%
    ——————————————————————
    Ratio of Direct vs Reseller a/cs- Ratio changed from

    73:27 on 17Sep2019
    to
    78:22 (23 April’20)
    to
    84:16(28th August’20)

    Ratio is changing for the better
    ——————————————————————
    Growth in PUBLISHERS Count grew by approximately 95% from year ago,as thus:

    17524 on 17 Sep’19
    to
    21762 on 23 April’20
    to
    34223 on 29th August’20 (Today)

    Trend is significantly positive.
    ——————————————————————

    Growth in Count of TOTAL ACCOUNTS
    is over 200 % from yearago count:

    22572 on 17 Sep’19
    to
    40329 on 23 April’20
    to
    67765 on 29th August’20 (Today)

    Above metrics indicates a fantastic all round upward trend.
    ——————————–

    #8142
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Last year August BCG was trading around Rs 3 to 3.5 range with lots of uncertainties. There was no clarify on OAK, Loan to Indian Banks, Pledge shares, Daum settlement and Subsidiaries.
    Now we know that
    1. OAK exited. (let us wait for official confirmation from the MGT)
    2. Loans to Indian Banks (we know that only Axis is pending now and it will be closed soon). I believe Axis is a done deal.
    3. Pledge shares are reduced from 59 percentage (in Sep 2019) to 33 or less as per June 30, 2020 SHP and more will be released once Axis is closed.
    4. Daum closure (last stage as per the company’s discloser to the exchange). I believe it is a done deal.
    5. US subsidiaries consolidation is done with the help BDO world’s 6th largest auditing firm.
    6. Israeli subsidiary is fully audited by E & Y (around 38 percentage of the total income)
    7. LOC is approved and due diligence process is underway as per the last con call. Once LOC is available 20 to 30 % more growth is expected.
    8. New investors please go though the last CC. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-lycos-nse-earnings-211340403.html
    9. BCG is trading @ pe 1, where the average industry pe is 23
    10. Book value is 55 plus.
    11. Total income is around 2800 cr and profit is around 400cr
    12. BCG is highly highly undervalued (as per my view)
    13. Please do your research before buying or selling BCG.

    #8143
    aindia
    Registered Boarder

    Not so obvious game changing trends@BC:

    I would urge you all to shift Focus on to the adauth.com stats of Brightcom, that were tearing away during August 2020.

    Very early on(2015) , you may recall, management was harping on building DIRECT SELLERS relationships,for the reason that they yield huge margins.

    Could not Paste screen shots of:
    17 Sep’19, 23 Apr’20 and 29 th Aug’20

    link to track in future:
    https://www.adauth.com/exchanges/brightcom.com

    Like I said, we should now be tracking :

    The mkt share was at 1.8 % (17 Sep’19) an year ago,and now spiked up to 3.3% during this month(Today).
    —————————————————————
    Growth in Count of DIRECT ACCOUNTS grew (thrice) from:

    17474 on 17Sep’19
    to
    31274 on 23 April’20
    to
    57174 on 29th August’20( Today)

    The above is what separates men from the boys.YoY the growth is an enviable 230%

    ————————————————————-
    Ratio of Direct vs Reseller a/cs- Ratio changed from

    73:27 on 17Sep2019
    to
    78:22 (23 April’20)
    to
    84:16(28th August’20)

    Ratio is changing for the better
    ——————————————————————–
    Growth in PUBLISHERS Count grew by approximately 95% from year ago, as thus:

    17524 on 17 Sep’19
    to
    21762 on 23 April’20
    to
    34223 on 29th August’20 (Today)

    Trend is significantly positive.
    ——————————————————————–
    Growth in Count of TOTAL ACCOUNTS
    is over 200 % from year ago count.

    22572 on 17 Sep’19
    to
    40329 on 23 April’20
    to
    67765 on 29th August’20 (Today)

    Above metrics indicates a fantastic all round upward trend.
    ———————————

    #8145
    sateanna
    Registered Boarder

    @aindia good analysis, all figures point upwards..lets see how this translates to top & bottom lines.

    #8158
    rajeshmk
    Registered Boarder

    Based on the declaration to BSE by the company looks like Oak has finally exited . Good riddance .

    8+
    #8159
    Srd.rdx
    Registered Boarder

    Indeed a welcome move of Oak exit.
    I expect Axis news to come in this week further improving the fundamentals of the company.

    6+
    #8160
    Srd.rdx
    Registered Boarder

    And the most WELCOME move is that fellow investors are holding this patiently.
    No Euphoria over UC/LC.
    Very Mature behaviour. Best wishes fellow BCGians… Eventually it will move up.
    Lets wait for other notifications to come out.

    Regards

    #8248
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    This short article explains the difference between SSP, DSP and DMP. Many think Affle is BCG’s competitor but Affle is a DMP and BCG is a SSP and there’s a big difference between those two. (note: Tradedesk is DSP)

    What’s the Difference Between an SSP and a DSP?

    #8255
    odysee
    Registered Boarder

    @Logan, it then stands to reason that the growth and cash flows of a DMP will always be superior to that of an SSP. Could BCG not have established an arm or a subsidiary years ago, that operated as a DMP, considering it had such vast experience in the field of digital advertising?

    3+
    #8257
    odysee
    Registered Boarder

    Thank you for your thoughts @Logan. I’m wondering if DSP and DMP models are more productive in the long term.
    As per my earlier readings provided by you, the strong DSP players could play dual roles( SSP too) over time. And possibly venture into the DMP place as well. BCG appears to be limited to the SSP sphere, although it’s done well in that, but facing many challenges, both because of the business practices impacting cash flow pressures as well as because of some poor ( in hindsight) business decisions.

    #8258
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    @odysee,
    I don’t think that BCG is limited to SSP side of things. BCG may also provide DSP services but I don’t think it’s as big as SSP.

    This is what is mentioned in Brightcom’s website

    Brightcom is a Publisher Side Platform – Our ‘compass’ proprietary technology and teams of trusted advisers across the globe turn us into an entry point for all the best the programmatic world has to offer. Our focus on the needs of our publishers allows us to offer advertisers premium traffic, quality assurance and exclusive media opportunities

    I don’t think that only DSPs and DMPs are better, even SSPs have their own strengths but my opinion is that it all comes down to how good relationships you have with the clients (publishers, advertisers, ad exchanges, ad agencies).

    Adtech is very complex and involves many participants, sometimes all appear to be same but when we dig deeper we’ll understand properly.

    We compare BCG with only TTD and Affle (because they are more popular and people notice them more because of their stock price) and come to conclusion that BCG is not doing well but if we look at other ad tech companies almost all have struggled. Yume, millennial media, rocketfuel, Marin software, telaria, Rubicon project etc all have struggled and compared to them BCG is far better (business wise).

    #8262
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Good results by BCG, 11% increase in revenue and 23% increase in profits (YoY).

    People may have confusions about growth in eps as it shows an increase of only 14% but that is because of increase in the number of shares (PO allotment).

    If we consider the previous shares outstanding then the eps becomes 2.12.

    (Due to the cyclical nature of the industry, while analysing, we should always consider YoY instead of QoQ)

    #8263
    admin
    Keymaster
    Topic Author

    #8366
    buffet
    Registered Boarder

    Thank you @Logan !

    One question – Lycos has been handed over to Daum … isn’t it better off to let it go?
    Let Daum keep it.

    Lycos has created more issue than it deserved. I may be wrong. Is BCG under any obligation to get it back? Why to invest in the problematic assets? Rather BCG could use the LOC to grow current business without Lycos.

    1+
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