Technically speaking

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  • #835

    Men here refers to the character of any human being and not gender specific. Please don’t get me wrong. Men are both women and men investors of this company who have had great conviction to stand against all odds . Had the patience . Had the confidence to stand when they were made to feel like they are non existent entity and was pressurised to have self doubt whether he was right in his path and actions.
    A person standing in the open and the rain pouring down upon him or her for six long years , making the person drenched and cold and had only their conviction , patience and confidence as a Umbrella , to finally emerge victorious.


    Hi BG

    Thanks for your reply and apology. Appreciate your gentle chats. Ofcourse all will join in celebrating men’s day.

    That is a mean way to celebrate by putting others down. He should not generalize just because he may be surrounded by dumb women/ trans.

    Sorry to say this, SHOUMIK, Every being created is special and unique. Respect Respect Respect before you become a millionnaire.

    Registered Boarder

    Guys chill, here’s hoping one day we can get together for a beer, celebrating the victory of our convictions and the success of patience having invested in BCG.


    Thank you Guest for bringing this out. This forum is for all and no discrimination will be allowed to happen.

    I would like to echo 108Bullguru’s post in general.

    Shoumik has clarified his use of Men in this context was to represent all the investors of BCG who shown patience all these year. In spite of having other scrips in their portfolio they spend time & effort to share knowledge in this forum. This is possible only when you are so attached to something.

    Topic Author

    Most of my work life has been in the medical world and 50% of my colleagues are women.
    I have immense respect for them and found them way better then men on many parameters. I am fortunate to say the same thing when i look around in close rlationships in my life.
    Now men please dont feel offended.It is a hard fact.
    Last Sunday when i was entering a house for a get together that i was going to address host said to one guest you are special and i had to interject and say we are all very special and then i talked about it in my address to the gathering.
    So well said”Every being created is special and unique. Respect Respect Respect before you become a millionnaire.”
    Enjoy your evening.

    Topic Author

    Thanks Kpal

    Affle & BCG Investor

    As per monthly chart, if it close above 4.17, it will be heading towards 6 to 7 levels. Once it cross 7 with huge volumes next target will be 9 to 11 rs where the change of hands both from retailers and flush out remianing liquidity. Once 11 is crossed, 35 will be the next stop this is for next 6 to 8 months and with positive development should happen ongoing basis. Big news is in offin. Wait for it

    Topic Author

    BCG is probably an excellent example of why an investor should wait for the actual evidence of a turnaround and not just the hope of a turnaround.

    Peter Lynch talks about this in the youtube clip below.

    This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or do anything whatsoever with shares in this company

    Registered Boarder

    I would say , technically we will have to wait more before the scrip smoothens out fundamentally. Let the positive news come, seep in, market reacts, scrip reacts, management comes clean, rocks it out few more quarters and then we can have heavy volumes, institutional investors coming in, media coming in, etc.

    Only then , I would be tempted to chart the BCG scrip and see technically what is our forecast.

    For BCG, I would use technical analysis to only get my entry points in future (after 3/4 quarters) and plan out exit in long future (3 years, 4 years, 5 years, more? who knows).

    As of now, I will focus purely on fundamental analysis to kick the entry again in this scrip and just buy and buy more on dips with the development progress intact and good news/evidences coming in.

    Management and Corporate Governance coming clean and strong is our key ๐Ÿ™‚

    Topic Author

    Agreed in toto.
    For the market cap to cross 1000 crores and THEN MFS AND FIIS to have a look
    BCG stock price has to go above 21 rupee.
    Before that we are on our own.
    That is where it went into free fall from 20 to sub 3 and the rudalies took over.

    Topic Author

    Agreed it i not easy to interpret and follow the technicals in a penny stock which can move so much on news.Feelings and reality can be very different some time.
    Here is the link to the chart.Have a good look.
    One can clearly see 52 week top at 7.05 rupee where it had a key reversal bar.Also another swing top at 5.30.Here is how i see it. RSI IS BREAKING OUT AT 52. WILL it hold and keep going to become overbought.MACD just crossing over to positive.
    Price closed above 20 day SMA.
    We need a close above 5.30 and then 7.05 rupee.
    A close above 7.05 gives technical projection of 11.55 or so.
    Also rememeber that BCG got to close above 21 for market cap of 1000 crores and Daum got to be closed for the MFS ,FIIS to have a look at it.
    Not to mention the appointment of big four auditors for trust to be restored in its books.


    Forget technical’s, It does not hold water especially so in penny stocks. It can go anywhere, What is important at this juncture is timely disclosures pertaining to Daum issue, Axis 11 crs loan closure. These two things will take care of stock price appreciating going forward like wild fire. Disclosures from our company promoters is indeed the need of the hour.Hope that is done asap.Folks Till then keep fingers crossed & no need to jump to any conclusions whatsoever.

    Topic Author

    My more than 25 years of experience tells me that markets know every thing and news follows the technicals .
    Let us see what happens.
    It is always good to consider technicals as well as fundamentlas.


    Hope it is real rally unlike April 19 rally.fundamentals should also favour and good news announcement will strengthen the rally


    Good morning friends .

    Let us today take a look at numbers through financial Analysis, then business & Industry Analysis and Management Analysis of our little Boy, our Diamond , our beloved BCG.

    First the Financial Analysis Through Ratios :

    TOL/TNW if |less than 1.50 than Maximum 20 marks can given in this criteria
    BCG scrores full 20 marks in TOL/TWO criteria.

    Next Current Ratio if greater than 1.50 max score of 15 can be given . BCG score is full 15 in this current ratio criteria.

    Next ROCE if greater than 20 maximum 10 marks can be allowed BCG scores here full 10 on 10.

    Next is the interest coverage ratio which is PBDIT/Interest if greater than 10 max can be given. Here BCH scores full 10 marks.

    Next the PAT/Net Sales ratio. If here the a company scores are above 8 maximum score of 10 can be given to that company. BCG scores here full 10 marks.

    Next is the Cash conversion cycle if less than 90 than the firm FETs max score of 10 . He BCG scores 8 out 10.

    Next comes the Foreign Exchange Risk. Is the risk is less than 15 % max score of 5 can be given. BCG scores here full 5 marks.

    Next Comes litigation or disputes. If the loss from the disputes have been provided for a company max score of 10 can be given if not zero. BCG scores here full 10 marks as it has already provided and kept aside sum require to settle the DAUM dispute. So no worries there.

    Next comes the country risk. Max scores of 10 can be given depending upon the risk of operating in countries where there are law and order problem. BCG scores here full 10 marks.

    The last ratio in Financial Analysis is the Age of the Receivables if less then 180 days than max score of 10 can be given. BCG has some time ago written off 25 crores of its overdue receivables . Now BCG scores here full 10 marks.

    So the Total Score of BCG adding all of the above are 108/110.

    This score has never ever come for any company in our institutions internal assessment.

    This is a Awsome score.

    Now we take a look at the

    The industry Digital Adtech , Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning , all three of these sectors are Sun Rise sectors . The Business and market potential of these sectors are Immense and mind blowing . These sectors represent Smart Tech and are the future of mankind. There are few good companies but BCG is not only the Largest company in its sector in India but amongst one of biggest in the world which can be compared to Trade desk listed in the US. It is 11 times larger than Affle India. Mcap of Affle is 4150 crores and that of BCG is Rs 200 crores. Should be atleast Rs 45000 crores compared To Affle and camped to tradedesk Mcap of es 75400 crores it’s Mcap should be at the very least be rs 53000 crores.

    The company invests in research and development in various teams in US , Israel, Europe and India. Invested rs 586 crores in R&D in last two years alone.

    So Business potential for all the three sunrise sector is huge.

    Now the Industry Risk part.
    There are no control regulations and interference from the government and they don’t regulate the industry margins and tariffs. So industry margins and the company can be in the control only in the hands of the market forces like competition. The growth potential in all three is immense and players are limited so margins pressure is not seen for many years and even decades. This can be quantified seeing the operating margins of BCG which are one of the highest in the whole world better than Tradedesk and Affle .The margins as per the sept 2019 BS is 30 % and these margins have been sustained over last 5 years.

    This about the Industry Risk part.

    Now for the scores BCG gets . BCG scores full 15 out of 15 marks im industry and business and industry risk part.

    Now the last aspect of our assessment ie the MANAGEMENT RISK part.

    Ler us take a look at the management risk part. The company is run by a first generation entrepreneur. Typically first generation business owners have a lot of Fire and Hunger for success inside of them. They are seeing money for the first time and they want to earn loads of money. The business is their own baby for which they work hard and take pride in it’s success. Money and pride both are involved with the first generation business owner.

    This is different to a boy who was born in a super rich business family who have already tasted the Uber lifestyle. So in these next generation who inherit their father’s business , they don’t have the fire and urge and need and the drive to still keep on growing their wealth. And the venture initially was not started by them and is not their baby. They din’t have that emotional connect and work as a caretaker.

    So the point here is if the promoter of the business earns a lot of money we as share holders will earn a lot of money and if the promoter does not earn enough we won’t either. Got.

    Next point. The Management here are highly qualified guys. And have travellers the world over . Are NRI’s have connections and link with the Tech Industry and the Smart Tech people in US , Israel , Europe and India and onboarded a smart workforce from all over the world.

    The promoter has a large stake in the business , meaning holding on to a big chunk of shares in the business. Which applies very favourably here in BCG .

    There is speculation on the integrity of the management. With appointment of a big 4 Auditor from the start of this year , who would be auditing the complete business for the whole year and put up at the end of this financial year end a Consolided Balance Sheet of all the various companies of the world BCG owns. A lot of positive surprises are awaited in this Year as consolidated B comes out at the end of this financial. By this act of the Management they have set to rest all the speculations moving around them.

    The company has been labeled as not been investor friendly as it has not been paying dividends lately despite generating profits of 400+ crores each year for the past 5 years and general reserves of 3167 crores and being debt free.

    Tradedesk of us which has a mCap of 10.46 Billion Dollars ie 75400 crores has since its inception in 2009 have never paid a single cent/dollar in dividend. BCG on past six years have paid and this year they have come up with a Dividend Distribution Policy of giving out to it’s shareholders atleast a 15% dividend on free cash flow which is projected to be aroma 480 crores working a div of 1.50 rupees per share in dividend each tear and will drow as the companies earning grow. Moreover 15 min minimum cap for dividend and can go higher.

    Next point. The management has grown it”s business from a small entity to the this big size. Figures for last ten years for the company can be seen on which speaks about the management quality.

    So the management in our assessment gets full 30 out of 30 marks.

    Now finally the total score the company gets in our assessment taking the crores of all the three factors .

    Financial score is divide by 2 to Normalize the score ot of 55 marks. The total financial score of the company was 108 out of 110 . We divide this score by 2 we get 108/2 = 54 which is 54 out of 55.

    So are total scores are
    Financial risk = 54 out of 55
    Business and
    industry risk = 15 out of 15
    Risk. = 30 out of 30

    So final score 99 out of 100 .

    That is a Amazing Amazing score for any company to have and most atleast 95 % and probably more can only dream about it.

    See the value and the price gap where we are at the present day which is Rs 200 Crores of Market Capitalization for the whole company and the market capitalization of atleast about 50000 crores yes Rs 50000 CRORES.

    That is a 250 times of todays price.

    Go get it if you can and by in Truck loads…


    Announcements are the need of the hour. Hoping SKR keeps his promise atleast this time and not do a googly again..!

    Daum closure, Axis loan needs to come quickly..our of which Daum can be tricky based on their thought process but Axis is in SKR’s hands..

    And remaining Big 4, consolidation of subsidiaries,Institutional investors, dividend, AI etc and will take its own time..

    Keep invested friends and all the best. Am having higher 6 digit number of share at decent average and holding for more than 3.6 years now..will never sell to operators and happy to hold for long term.

    Topic Author

    Tradedesk of us which has a mCap of 10.46 Billion Dollars ie 75400 crores has since its inception in 2009 have never paid a single cent/dollar in dividend. BCG on past six years have paid and this year they have come up with a Dividend Distribution Policy of giving out to itโ€™s shareholders atleast a 15% dividend on free cash flow which is projected to be aroma 480 crores working a div of 1.50 rupees per share in dividend each tear and will drow as the companies earning grow. Moreover 15 min minimum cap for dividend and can go higher.
    I think that will be the case re free cash flow if near zero was invested on post tax net profits unlike last 4 years when nearly 1300 crores wentt int0 investments leaving only 18 crores i think as free cash flow last financial year.
    So a very BOLD ASSUMPTION of 480 crores FREE CASH FLOW.Any reasons for making that assumption.

    Diana Horton
    Registered Boarder

    Bull G…. Your posts to me suggest that you are too confused. On, one hand, you state that, the script is very undervalued. On the other hand when the script is rising, you state that, wait for news to come

    Diana Horton
    Registered Boarder

    On one hand you crib that it’s a zero on the other hand it’s a hero

    Topic Author

    Follow the collective wisdom of the market while managing your risk.
    It is always a good idea to consider both aspects of any thing all the positives and negatives and then make an informed decision.I wish i had known as much as i know now before buying it in thrities and the rest U know… what happened.
    Both views are correct.
    Just depends.

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