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Chris, There were many moving parts in today’s reversal. We were anticipating this since last few days. I said early in morning when stock opened in LC… that all is not over until it is over.
Now next battle ground is at 62 and then around 80 and then ATH. I think, FA should be a cakewalk. The disclosures were made after Q2 results in 2020 by SKR about Asset Impairment and those impairments are in all third world states where accounting standards are always a question. We are getting enough clues from ConCall as well as global trends in CTV, OTT and Digital Audio space that we are just scratching the surface in AdTech business.
As we know, manufacturing industry spends almost 8% of their sales on advertising. And that comes to 1.2% of GDP in developed countries like the US. The US has been spending $240 billion on Adtech spending over GDP of $22 trillion. Adtech growth trajectory is the multiplier of the consumption demand. And GDP is the mathematical summation of economic activity. This makes Adtech spend directly proportional to GDP size. Having said this, India at $5 trillion (both shades of money included), we have potential to spend no less than 50 billion USD. We are still making baby steps and this can turn into strides in max 2 years as the growth is exponential.
I am not surprised to see BCG get re-rated and trade at PE over 35-50. EPS is around 5 and likely to grow at 35-40% for next 3 years in line with topline. That opens the new possibilities… 10x from this level can not be ruled out.
Stay PUT.. and ride out the volatile patch.. and disclosures would come in due course but then this price would be the HISTORY.. !!!
>>>>>>>> Thanks DH for sharing your views.
I do agree with you that this stock is an immense wealth builder and this correction coming out from non-disclosure of SEBI’s September 2021 letter is towards its expiry date.
It is not true that SKR didn’t make efforts to soothe nerves of disgruntled investors. What made market nervous was SKR has not Audited Consolidated Financials and when over 868cr are marked down under Asset Impairment, without proper Audit it raises suspicion. And most of the asset impairment happened in third world countries like Mexico, Argentina etc. That makes investors believe what most of the Indian Business Community is expert at…. But this was a matter recorded in FY19. Stock was in single digit then. And since BCG recovered from rock bottom levels, it was a tacit understanding in investors that the worse is behind. SKR delivered two token dividends to show his cashflows are genuine. And then a Bonus issue. And party started.
He came on CNBC for interview. Do you think CNBC anchor had any dream of inviting SKR? Infact he tried to reach audience thru media channels.
What he could have done was, disclosing the letter from SEBI in September. But he thought that let stock rally and he would spice up rally with second bonus and things would go under the carpet. Unfortunately, it didn’t. And now investors are afraid of second bonus. Stock corrected before Bonus. So after Bonus, it can go down by another 40% and still 20-30% correction is pending before Ex-bonus date. So, BCG is ruthlessly butchered for underestimating power of Corporate Disclosures/Governance and the BCG Bears’ cartel. There are deep pocket sideline investors not ready to digest the scintillating story of BCG. So, BCG is becoming victim of its own success. It had to happen someday.
Then what is the way forward?
I think correction would halt around 80-90 cum-Bonus. And then stock will adjust for the bonus. The internal revenue engine and the scope of Adtech is robust. So, stock has still potential to climb up and make new highs in 2022. All depend, how fast SKR can put controversy to rest. But it can not take long. Normally, such audit takes 6-12 months. Being in operation across the border, it may take some more time. Now what if, SEBI finds nothing?
In that scenario, the very reason BCG used to be doubted by large players, the inability of the group to declare Audited Consolidated Financial Statements, would be cleared. That opens the doors for BCG to get adequate media attention and possibly it can be included in Next Nifty 50 and included in F&O.
Now it makes a perfect sense why SKR did not show interest to list BCG on NASDAQ and instead he hinted Israeli subsidiary…
At this point no need to exit. Stock has risen 50x from the bottom. So, if it corrects 50%, even then bull market trajectory does not change. But what if, all is well… The bulls will not give chance to ride BCG again. Then even 500 can be possible.
Weak hearted investors should exit as always.
The rest can Sit Tight.
We may see Ukrainian crisis to remain like Covid but it’s impact would ease by May end … With margin of safety of a month.
I had made a post after Bonus Announcement. I was not happy with second one. But it doesn’t mean that time to trigger exit button. Wealth is made by staying PUT. By holding good counters for long till value unlocks.
I expert SKR to make more media discourse to keep interest of investors alive in this trying times.
Hi all.. LOC talks in final stages.. by end of the year. and new opportunities to unlock soon. 5G..new acquisition, LOC will jump core growth by 30-40%… in nutshell very robust outlook. SKR is reducing pledge and increasing holding. Positive. Plus we may see new fundraising at higher rates and Bonus & dividend. No point of speculating cash flow at this stage. LOC will change everything..
Next Affle will fly like Rafale
🚀🚀 It will be 150+ at some point and 500+ on longer term.. 50+ will be soon… Moving in “J” pattern .!! Hopefully, by end of March, we may see pledge issue behind us and company would cross 3000 cr topline threshold. Equity dilutions will take some quarter of EPS but new inorganic additions will prop up the KPI. Very interesting times ahead. I had written on Moneycontrol that BCG would lift many from the middle class when stock was trading at 5. This J shape is accelerating this process. BCG is one of my three prospective Nasdaq entrants besides SUBEX and 3i Infotech.SUBEX has moved from 5 to 70 and on its way to 100 and then 500. 3i is about to explode after SOA. Good Luck!
Dear Logan, I agree with you in letters and in spirit about potential of Brightcom. Company resumed dividend which is a very strong signal to sceptics who were concerned about free cash flow of the business as for years BCG failed to translate P&L Profit into Free Cash Flows thanks to mounting receivables. Company initiated Positive Press to change perception of the company. They started work on new verticals to generate Alpha for all stakeholders. Contrary to popular perception, I strongly feel that there is no free lunch. And there is no free thing without a cost.. not even Bonus. This Bonus issuance reminds me of naive Anil Ambani who issued Bonus in RPower immediately upon listing at the time of 2008 crash. Did that boost confidence of the stakeholders? Rpower moved from that Listing high to bottom at 1. I learned a lesson that juggling equity numbers will be a short-term steroidal shot for stock movement but real push comes from the qualitative improvements in Balance Sheet. When company is working on fundraising thru equity route, the last thing they could do is issuance of Bonus. At some point in time, they will work on ADR for Nasdaq listing. Equity dilution will be inevitable then. SKR would raise his holdings thru that route the way The Ruias did in Essar Oil. And above this, PW conversion is a loose cannon.. It can do even more dilutions. The best thing which is need to the hour is LOC breakthrough. This will open up headroom for faster revenue growth. I expect this event will add topline by 40-50% over 6-8 quarters and that will expand Free Cash flow by 8-10x which is already reduced to trickle. So, Cash management is the core issue hurting both Topline and stock valuation. We are at cusp of 5G era and I expect BCG to play a strategic role in it. What it requires is War Chest overflowing with cash just like Tanla and Subex are doing and 3i is following these steps very soon. I think management is held hostage to Anil Ambani Syndrome… On a brighter note, I see current momentum has more steam left… may be 30s, post results and 50 in next 2-3 quarters. Good Luck!! NOTE- Please find enclosed a link to my previous post published in October 2020 for your reference.. https://brightcominvestors.com/forums/topic/technical-analysis-discussion/#post-8812
This counter has been abused and ignored by reasons best known to us. The time has come and tide is turning. The current fall from the break out high of 12.5 to 5.10 in 3 months is a very heartening sign if you see the technicals, commentary from the management and above all the crisp interest from investors of all sizes. This counter may see the worst case lows of 5 which is already seen once and then we may see stock rising to levels of 22 in next 1 year time. Why? The monthly chart pattern is a very powerful forecasting tool if used properly. This pattern records all price actions generated from news, events and expectations (euphoria and panic). The stock has retraced 50% Fibonacci to 12.5 from lows of 2.27. So, this pattern has to complete once the correction is over.. I expect 100% Fibonacci level for coming leg of rally at 22.5!! We may see another pattern developing by then based on market dynamics, company performance and investors sentiment. I would update on next move once we see this level is achieved in 2021. Good Luck!!