jmathew

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  • in reply to: General Discussion #12621
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Dear Brightspotji,
    After the recent developments, it is just a matter of time for BCG to trade at decent pe. The market is waiting for the Q2 result and the name of the targetted company which BCG is going to acquire. US audio firm acquisition news is also expected very soon. At EPS of rs 8 ( forward-looking after Q2 result ), BCG should be rerated to a minimum pe of 20 by end of this year if not more. 4xfrom here is very much possible in the next three and a half months. Cheers.

    in reply to: Brightcom Group’s Valuation #12521
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Based on the recent forward looking statement from the company
    1. Minimum full year Eps (21-22) rs 9 plus
    2. This may even go past rs 10 ( subjected to the new acquisitions and other businesses in pipeline )
    3.The average industry PE as per screener is 27 and money control is 39
    4. SKR expects (as per EGM) huge multiplication of eps by March 2023, so I too expect eps of Rs.20 plus by March 2023
    5. Huge upmove is expected from the current level
    6.Q2 result will give the clear path.

    in reply to: Brightcom Group’s Valuation #12448
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    BCG EPS will be around rs 5 after dilution
    The average industry PE as per screener is 27 and money control is 39.
    Regarding the target company for acquisition.
    1. SKR said out of 700 cr we have, some parts will be used for acquisition. Remaining for future needs.
    2. Deal is with 80 % cash and 20 % equity.
    3. With equity they may become a part of the promotors group.
    4. LOC is expected by end of this year or Q4
    5. SKR expects (as per EGM) huge multiplication of eps by March 2023, so I expect eps of Rs.15 by March 2023
    6. Long way to go and please do your research before buying or selling.

    in reply to: Brightcom Group’s Valuation #12447
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    BCG Book Value after dilution.
    Reserve & surplus by March 21 = 3158 cr
    Pw money including FPI=550 cr
    Total reserve & surplus =3700 cr
    Total equity after dilution = 117 cr (assuming FPI is not eligible for bonus)
    So BV = reserve/equity+fv
    BV = 3700 cr /117cr +2rs = rs 33.6
    As per screener BV is rs 34.9

    in reply to: Brightcom Group’s Valuation #12389
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Dears

    Bcg minimum intersic value
    Ex(8.5+2g)×4.4/y

    E = earning per share
    G = growth rate
    Y= average AAA corporate bond yield

    Based on the above bcg intersic value after dilution.
    5x(8.5+2×10)x4.4/7= 88
    Intersic value rs 88

    Bcg eps = 5
    Growth =10%
    Y = 7
    Above one is based on my minimum understanding. Experts can give more inputs on this.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12251
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Number of shares are increased to 74 cr. List is for investors with more than 1% holding.
    Example promoters holding percentage is also reduced.

    in reply to: Deccan Gold Mines #12133
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder
    Topic Author

    Sorry friends. Don’t buy deccan gold now. Very bad news as per the company update in bse today.
    Date 18/07/2021

    in reply to: Brightcom Group’s Valuation #12128
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Ad Tech Valuations Are Sky High – But Are They Justified?

    Bcg deserves a very very high valuation.40 to 50 pe minimum.

    in reply to: Questions to ask / Post-Conference Update #12124
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Total equity after bonus + warrants+ new issue of 12 cr shares = 116 cr.
    Looking forward diluted eps will be around rs 5 from the existing business plus earning from the new acquisition. We can very much expect loc by end of this year which will add another 30 % . Few more acquisitions are expected plus new businesss
    I belive we are on the way to non stop rs 100 plus, even all time high.
    Average industry pe is 34 and I won’t be surprised if bcg move to pe 40 plus non stop.
    Enjoy the ride

    in reply to: Questions to ask / Post-Conference Update #12093
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    With the new acquisition bcg is meeting may points mentioned above. Now we are looking for higher growth and higher eps in coming quarters.cheers and sit and enjoy the ride.

    in reply to: Questions to ask / Post-Conference Update #12030
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Investors, I just want to bring your kind attention to, few points from the conference call. I may be wrong so please do your research.
    1. Please try to listen to the cc completely and try to connect all the dots.
    2. SKR want to revisit for LOC after a quarter or two and before that, he is eyeing a good valuation
    3. LOC will add another 30 % growth
    4. SKR want a good valuation for the company before consolidating a few subsidiaries and QIP
    5. He is looking for a sales target of $ 450 Million plus asap which will add more cash flow.
    6. Few acquisitions are expected in the coming quarters.
    7. He is looking for a famous J curve too (many after a couple of years)
    As per my view, a minimum decent pe after bonus issues and PW dilution are around 20 (current sector pe is 34). Timeline – I expect pe 20 by end of this year. Best wishes to all the BCG investors.

    in reply to: General Discussion #11814
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    BCG’s eps, Rs 9 (FV 2), and Affle eps is Rs.50 (FV 10). If we split Affle FV to Rs 2 then EPS per share will be 10 and the share price is rs 950. So BCG with eps 9 trading @ 16 and Affle with eps 10 tradings at rs.950. BCG is present in many countries and much bigger than Affle. Bcg’s next stop will be at its book value. I expect many investors will shift from other stocks to BCG and will be able to make a multifold returns. Loc and audio firm acquisition news are expected at any time. 85-90 % of the shares are with Top 2000 shareholders.
    Note: This is not a buy or sell call. Please do your research before investing.

    in reply to: General Discussion #11764
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Noticed that more than 25 cr shares are traded in th last 3 months. Average delivery around 60 percentage. Seems like many weak hands are exited and probably majority of sgsres are gone into the kitty of needy.just my view only. Looking forward for a closing above rs 13 next week.

    in reply to: General Discussion #11763
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Just my view below I may be completely wrong.
    1. PW investors accumulated more during the last few months with the help of operators and management
    2. PW investors paid 25% so both of them met their requirements.
    3. Management cannot continue with the price suppression as the time is running out for them.
    3. They need to release the news on pledge share release, LOC, Daum closure and audio firm acquisition
    4. A good full year result with decent dividend

    So the up move started prior to the good announcement

    It is a joke to see that 400 CR profit making global digital firm’s market cap is at 500 CR where it suppose to be minimum 15K cr to 20K cr market cap
    cheers and best of luck.

    in reply to: General Discussion #11570
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Dears,
    It is true that the price is not moving up anywhere near to our expectations. We expected a minimum of 52 weeks high after Axis closure. But now even after PW approval, we are not seeing any kind of buying interest in BCG.
    But a couple of good news like 1. SHP with no pledge shares 2. New acquisition 3. LOC 4. Daum closure can move the price up very quickly to BV or if management decides then towards the fair market price.
    Cheers

    2+
    in reply to: General Discussion #11288
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Friends very interesting days are ahead. Let us hope that management will make the right decision so that BCG will trade at a decent pe very soon.
    1.Axis loan is closed.
    2.NCLT -> Will be closed by March 10th. NOC and pledge shares release by April End
    3.PW, the company may have confirmation, and notification is expected any time after 10th March
    4.LOC is also expected soon, looks like BCG is waiting for PW to finalize the LOC.
    5.Daum closure may take some more time as the management is not at all in a hurry to close it. A one-time settlement with a better deal is expected.
    6.Expected some good announcement after PW
    7.Industry average pe is 32
    8.Affle is trading above pe 160
    9.Tanla pe is around 80
    10.BCG trading pe below 1.5
    Cheers and all the best.

    in reply to: General Discussion #11243
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    Dears,
    We all know that Axis is closed and BCG is debt-free.
    We all know the reason, why the price is kept in this range.
    We all know BCG is highly undervalued.
    We all know what is going to happen after the PW approval.
    We all did our homework for years in BCG and holding us per our capacity. Add more if possible, at this range.
    I have doubled my holding after this forum is created. Thanks, and My Salute to Admin and all selfless boarders.

    Great Quote by George Bernard Shaw
    “If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.”
    Cheers

    in reply to: New Research Report for Dec-2020 #10000
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    @Logan Sir, Thank you very much for correcting me.

    Dears,
    Tanala Book value is rs 32 and trading near to Rs.700
    Affle Book value is rs 90 and trading near to Rs. 4000
    BCG current Book value is rs. 55 and trading below 10 ( after PO and Daum settlement, expected BV is around Rs.35. Lycose BV and EPS will be added to BCG after Daum settlement).
    Averager industry pe is 28. Bamboo/OAK tree, BCG is fully loaded with fundamentals and will be the share of the year 2021. Best wishes to all the BCG investors and see you all after the Q3 result.

    in reply to: New Research Report for Dec-2020 #9997
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    #9905
    Just for your info.
    Tanla total revenue is around 1100 Cr and the Market cap is 9300 Cr
    Affle total revenue is around 200 Cr and the market cap is around 10000 Cr.
    BCG total revenue is around 2800 CR and Market cap is below 500 CR

    The market is fully aware that, BCG’s management is very serious in closing all outstanding issues and expects it will be done before Q4 result. BCG will be debt-free by April 2021 with an adjusted book value of Rs.35 and eps of Rs. 6 (I may be wrong in BV and EPS) and BCG’s will move very quickly to a minimum market cap of 5K by Q1 2021, before finding its fair value by April 2022.

    in reply to: New Research Report for Dec-2020 #9982
    jmathew
    Registered Boarder

    ##9905 based on this report (5 years target) a blind buy at this level. BUY And hold for couple of months and Take the capital out and hold the remaining shares for long term Even 5 years target can be history by Dec 31 2021. Cheers and all the best to BCG investors.

    6+
Viewing 20 posts - 1 through 20 (of 71 total)