[jmathew]

• Pledged shares in sep 2019 was 11.8 crore
• Pleaded shares in sep 2020 is 5.95 cores (huge positive)
• We know OMS is a fully owned subsidiary of BCG and generating around 38 % revenue and audited by E & Y.
• We know AXIS closure expected at any time
• We know LOC approval is in the final stage along with the consolidation of 12 subsidiaries
• Only two major issues are pending Axis and LOC ( Daum will be closed after LOC).
• G group is holding around 15 Percentage of shares
• OAK exited and no more selling pressure for OAK
Dears Just relax and wait for the story to unfold.

[ramganesh1982]

@jmathew I feel the worry of almost being there and yet we are not there is hurting everyone here . Management past record of closure and sticking to its commitments add fuel to fire . Now we have to look forward for 2021 to be good for BCG and take anything positive in 2020 as bonus to keep ourselves going. My worry is golden time not getting utilitized by BCG . Almost any junk IT stock is up apart from this 🙂

[VALUEBUYER001]

Any thing one can get back but not precious time.company is loosing valuable time and opportunities

[odysee]

@VALUEBUYER001, this whole exercise of consolidation was started many months ago to facilitate the granting of the LOC against the consolidated receivables of those 12 subsidiaries, and to be able to capitalise on the expected frenzied activity in the digital advertising space prior to the US Presidential elections with the additional funds on call ( and to pay the settlement amount to Daum).
What the heck happened?
Apart from the expected clarification – “these things take time”, no cogent explanation has been put forth by the management. The US elections will be done and dusted, and so will the opportunity of capitalising on the hugely increased demand.
This ‘almost done’ saga is becoming tiresome, repetitive and frustrating, apart from eroding the trust and confidence of all those who have long admired and shown solidarity with Mr Reddy.

[Anonymous]

Everything depends on attitude. You know there is a correlation between attitude and integrity. I am just thinking about those long investor who waiting 6 years or more trusting him and in turn what he delivered. He should understand and remember time is the biggest healer and biggest punisher also at times. Intention should be cleared . He is giving everyone a chance to irritate. Getting LOC is not so easy. Talking about LOC and expecting it one thing and getting it done is another thing. One thing deeply pains me why he told one of the conference call it’s done deal about daum and he used the term personally although he knows he will not get it soon. It’s almost 6 months. He should understand one thing if you respect time, time will respect you. Whole 2020 is a mess just waste of time. No concrete improvement. Axis loan closing most important thing, but delay continues. When see affle India price compared to BCG it is really hard to digest. I hope he delivers what he preaches.

[nitin_asce]

I think we all are losing patience due to long non performance of our investment s. However I think going by history, whatever claims skr makes we know it will take much longer to complete. However good part is some issues are behind our back and only couple of them like axis, loc and daum etc is pending. I do expect to see some progress in these issues.

However growth is very important and we have seen some growth in latest quarterly results. So if bcg continues on growth part, then everybody will notice the share even if the 3 remaining issues are not resolved.

I am just reading in between the lines from latest concall that due to excitement skr gave some forward looking statements about growth at the end of concall where he mentioned ad traffic has grown 3 times approx.

So my suggestion would be track growth part minutely and give some time for remaining 3 issues. We need to also think that he was able to close some issues (maybe we don’t agree with the resolution) but at least those issues are behind us.

[Anonymous]

Regarding International flight, pls read News18 this article. Tittle is. India Signs Air Bubble Pact with 16 countries. Among 16 countries south Korea not in list. India negotiating other countries also in that list south Korea name is there.

[Logan]

@Rathi_b

In the conference call, the CEO said Axis went to NCLT to put pressure on BCG and the case getting delayed in NCLT doesn’t have any impact on the negotiations they are having with Axis.

What are your thoughts on this?

[nitin_asce]

@logan I think this issue cropped up since axis could see the money from rights issue. Going by the same logic I don’t expect LOC to get approved before Axis is settled or BCG might be ready to pay full loan amount which looks unlikely.

[Logan]

Thank you for the clarification @nitin_asce.

The sad part is BCG can’t utilise the PO funds it received.

[Anonymous]

@Nitin you are right. If axis closing not solved, forget loc, forget daum. What is going on with axis loan, only he knows best, but in my little knowledge delaying will only hamper directly or indirectly. No update on September 14 to 17 virtual meeting,when asked by face to face then replied we will update. This kind of response not encouraging. I think a complete crystal clear information market need a. BDO Audit update b. Axis closing maximum time. c. LOC maximum how much time. These things should be answered concretely.

[Rathi_b]

@Logan NCLT is just a gimmick to get more money out. During our conversation we did discuss with him about this issue in length. The root of the problem arises when brightcom started paying off SBI and Canara debts. During that time to complete the OTS with those banks and due to pooling of funds for it they stopped paying axis bank their installments. It seems while this was happening they did reach out Axis regarding their situation in paying of the loans to other entities. It seems the money at that time that was due was around 9 crores. So when brightcom spoke to them about conducting a OTS axis once SBI and Canara was done, it seems axis had agreed to it. During the company’s talks with Axis management at that time the base principle over the payment of remaining dues was agreed to be 9 crores. But during last year when brightcom approached axis for a settlement the company management had changed and they were not agreeing to the base principle of 9 crores, instead they sought a significantly higher principle over which interest was to be paid. This was when DRT( put up of collateral for auction) had happened. Then the company got a stay on the issue over there. So then Axis this year to muzzle a good payment term took them to IBC under section 7 of it. And since then it has been languishing there. Both of the parties have been negotiating the terms since the past many months and SKR during our conversation with him had said a proper offer was placed to the bank seeing how the negotiations were happening. I think now it is a matter of just handful amount of crores which is still being considered so I am confident of the situation. My concern is not about axis not at all, I am more concerned about g gang and their predatory strategy of lapping up shares. They have been constantly selling from around 8.50 to were it is now. Hopefully a stable investor is bought to flush those people out.

[Logan]

@Rathi_b, thank you for the clarification. It cleared all the confusions I had on Axis issue.

I don’t think we can understand G group’s intention. 2 entities of theirs have kept stake below 5%. Are there any regulatory filings needed to do if the stake is over 5%?

To get stable investors’ attention, the best thing BCG could do is have higher growth rates so LOC plays an important role. Even without LOC, the profits grew 23% so after they receive it’ll be very interesting to see the growth rates. In the conference call, the CEO was very confident on the future of the company so it’s a good sign.

Market recognises BCG’s potential and strengths but it is not yet ready to give the right valuation because of Axis. I don’t think people would’ve cared much about Axis debt if Axis didn’t go to NCLT (SBI and Canara are the examples). Just the name scares investors so much. Markets hate uncertainty and the delay in NCLT isn’t helping anyone.

I don’t think any other company’s stock price would’ve fallen after seeing positive news. 23% growth in pandemic times is not a small accomplishment. We have TTD trading close to 250PE and BCG struggling at 0.5PE. I think convincing the market to move on from the past is very important. Criteo’s stock is also struggling to move but it had issues with business but with BCG the issues are legacy issues and their impact on the business is not much but the market is not understanding it. I don’t think market is factoring in programmatic advertising when it’s valuing BCG.

[Rathi_b]

Logan you are looking at a report of upto Sep 30. The bottom of 4.98 was on 5th of October. If you see till today over 11% of the company has been traded. This is where my concern lies. The g gang might have done some good business during the this week. We need to put pressure on the management to get them out. They are real cause for the troubles not really axis. They are much better privy to the settlement than us. They know things we still don’t know. Let me reiterate the g gang is the reason for the price fall not really axis. They sought to play with the investor sentiment with Axis to lap up more shares. They did increase their holdings for sure during the last selloff.

[odysee]

Would anyone like to speculate as to why the g group continues to accumulate the stock? What is the likely end-game?
What purpose is served by continuously keeping the price at these levels over so many years? Surely even they would like to see the stock trading at a more realistic price to generate wealth. They can’t really sell in the market even at double today’s price as their holding cannot be absorbed.
Do they hope to pressurise the promoters ? But to what end and what would they achieve?
If they let the price move up to around 35/45 levels, then they can (maybe) off-load some or most of their holdings to a strategic or some institutional investors and make significant profits in the bargain.

@Rathi_b, do you and your fellow investors who met with SKR have a sense of the likely scenario being built up?

[Raj]

Odysee, there should be some hidden agenda, which we investors are not aware of and better understanding between the CEO and G gang to suppress the price at such lows.. Looks like everyone are waiting for the LOC.. till then fingers crossed..

[nitin_asce]

I think game is pretty simple. If the market cap goes high then axis and daum will not settle for less money. I am guessing unless the two issues are settled the share price will not go up.

Management has lot in their hands and I think it will be revealed when all issues are settled.

[odysee]

Good time to accumulate and add if resources permit 😊

[Anonymous]

It’s good to dance in own tune rather than dancing on other tune. He may have best plan in his mind, but he clearly lacks to understand in business the word timing and opportunity most precious metals, because you never know what lies ahead. I hope he understands it. Market is a tool which reacts based on information and more importantly the authenticity of proof about information and that is the reason market is not giving much importance because bdo audit not tabled yet. Investment is an art. Ppl will only invest only when there is absolute clarity. In business another thing matter it’s word, this is like a signature because words are taken as promise in business. When any organisation fails on it, the trust deficit starts slowly and then create a large hole of disbelief

[buffet]

I think, price is getting deliberately suppressed. Otherwise why on earth Goenkas would buy @rs 7-8 frm oak, & further hammer down price till rs 5. Possible reasons could be –

1. To hand twist the Daum & Axis to settle for less.

2. Don’t let Axis liquidify pledged holding.

3. Once LOC is in place, SKR will buy big from open market. Maybe whole of goenka’s holding. If price increases, SKR will have to arrange lots of funds for buy back. Thr seems to be deliberate understanding between G gang & promoters. Just wild guess.

Once these objectives are fulfilled, real rally would start. Till then hold ur horses.

[Author]

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