Logan

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  • in reply to: General Discussion #13066
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks @ramganesh1982. In my opinion this is one of those cases where you can’t get a proper answer and you’ll have to wait till the event to happen to know the impact. People started many theories and explanations after this news was shared. As expected, some people are saying it as a very positive thing and likewise naysayers are saying it as a very negative thing.

    I’m in the “I DON’T KNOW” category.

    Last time people were very excited for the bonus and some bought only for the bonus thinking they’ll get it for free. We’ll have to wait and see whether they have the same excitement now.

    Also last bonus issue was very important and you could sense that it would have a very positive impact. The stock didn’t have life for years and the bonus issue gave a breath of fresh air to it but this time it’s different because the stock is performing very well.

    Some things are very hard to analyse whereas others are very easy. Last year when Axis case was closed but the PW issuance was not yet approved, I had written that the stock may not do well until the issuance was approved. Some people said that news of closure of Axis case was enough, technicals were also very good, chart is in this shape, graph is in that shape etc and they said that whatever I wrote was very wrong and tried to mock me but at the end whatever I wrote did matter as my guesses were right. Though the closure of Axis case was very good, people that matter the most for stock price movements i.e. traders and momentum investors, wouldn’t have bought the stock and held for long because they’ll have a target in mind which was the PW issuance price.

    {Without that psychological barrier (7.7), Axis closure would’ve been enough to lift the price}

    Then after the bonus news and acquisition news rally, the stock retracted a bit and maybe it would’ve stayed in the range of 25-40 (latest preferential issue range) if we didn’t get the news of Mr.Shankar Sharma subscribing to the warrants. I think him being associated with the company brought a different perception and made the company more famous. His name and fame gave that push that was required for the stock to come out of the “lazy zone” (which is a PE ratio closer or below 8-10 in Bull markets and 4-8 in normal and bear markets). Then the great business outlook and the name of the target company gave further momentum which took the stock to 200+.

    Sentiment wise many things have changed a lot and the perception is way better than what it used to be just 1 year back. People aren’t getting fooled like they used to. At least some section of the investor community is not letting the naysayers to manipulate because they are understanding the company and its business better. People are asking logical questions to naysayers. Great people like our “aggressive trader”, diaper kid (who mocked name changes), doctor uncle (who mocked when total shareholders reached 1 lakh) and many other armchair experts with thousands of followers tried very hard to bring negative sentiment but they are failing.

    I think we’ll see some volatility till the conference call. There’ll be panic buying and panic selling depending on the price movements. If the price movement is green I guess people will panic buy and if it’s red then they may panic sell.
    (just a guess)

    in reply to: General Discussion #13047
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    I think timing of the approval also has played a part in creating unnecessary negative sentiment. Just when the news of Vodafone Idea and TTML agreeing to give away equity to the government was around, we got this approval news. New investors who don’t/didn’t know the history properly might have panicked and sold and looking at that, our beloved naysayers took advantage of that. They’re trying to bring the perception that the management is giving away equity at such low prices instead of giving at the current price so the stock will go to that price etc. They also don’t know the process properly and they don’t know when this plan was made and of course new investors also will not put the efforts to find that out.

    Gullible investors will believe the lies without trying to find out the reality and of course sell their shares which will have an impact on the stock price for few days/weeks until the next event happens. Some people will ask about this in the conference call and waste everyone’s time just like they asked about promoters selling their shares.

    Few months back when the stock retracted a bit, some genius people wrote that Mr.Shankar Sharma sold his shares and that’s why the stock is crashing. They accused him of doing pump and dump. The funny thing about that was, Mr.Sharma is not getting shares but he’s getting warrants and also more important than that was it wasn’t even approved back then. So our beloved naysayers imagined everything and they made up stories on that. I’ll call them delusional but people with herd mentality call them greats and follow their “advice” very seriously.

    People like our “aggressive trader” and traders on MMB will try to give lectures about fundamentals and also try to score few brownie points because they can easily fool some people.

    in reply to: General Discussion #13045
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Hi everyone please let me know whether to laugh at this or to feel pity for our “aggressive trader” who doesn’t know shit about fundamentals.

    “Its technology company naaaa???
    What will they do with 2000 crore of cash???”

    So, technology companies don’t need cash at all and they can grow cash on trees or they can create cash out of thin air with magic. There’s a limit to bullshit and this guy doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about. His followers think he’s some kind of a genius.

    He’s trying to mock BCG when he himself looks like a joker with zero knowledge. Most of the times you need someone else to expose someone’s knowledge (or lack thereof) but our “aggressive trader” doesn’t need that as he’s stupid enough to do it himself. I love it and I love his logic.

    His followers are so lucky. They don’t have to subscribe to Netflix or other platforms, they can see his tweets and get all the comedy they want.

    Challenge him for a debate. 100% he’ll block you or if he does reply to you then he’ll say what they’ll do with all the profits they have, why can’t they use that profits to acquire companies. This “aggressive trader” is supposed to know everything (fundamentals) about every company.

    in reply to: General Discussion #13039
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    I hope that BCG getting into audio ad space will be like how it started “Brightcom” platform (programmatic video advertising). Like I said in my previous post that BCG was one of the very few companies that started it an early stage which turned out to be a great thing for all the stakeholders. I don’t think the audio ad market is too big but at least the opportunities are big enough for BCG to get into and also being a big fish in a small pond will be far better than being a small fish in a big pond (or ocean). Getting into that space at an early stage will make sure that BCG can become a big fish (in the long run).

    Yesterday I also talked about how our beloved naysayers will cleverly leave out positive things and highlight only negative things. They tried many things but “serious” investors aren’t giving a damn about them and they are countering these naysayers with facts. One trader was always talking about Daum Daum Daum but since no one is caring about it anymore, he tried to talk about India debt and since that is also done and dusted, he can’t use that anymore so now he’s trying to bring the perception that standalone is more important than consolidated numbers.

    According to him, since more people are using internet, mobile, watching more video, listening to more audio, the company should improve its business here. Good suggestion and it should be treated as a suggestion or advice but our naysayer tries to project it as a negative thing and worse than that is he tries to manipulate others to think like him. Here is where he forgets that there are sane people like me who don’t easily get manipulated by his nonsense. Last time I gave a different analogy (or whatever the term used to describe that) but today I’ll give his beloved Vodafone Idea analogy.

    More people are using mobile, internet, broadband, watching more videos, listening to more audio but why is Vodafone Idea (Vi) losing its market share every month? Why are many companies in the telecom sector (not just telecom operators) struggling? Why did many companies close their business in India? Even giants like Tata gave up. BSNL which had a monopoly in rural areas is struggling now. Remember more people in both urban and rural areas are starting to use more smartphones, internet which should’ve attracted more companies and all the companies should’ve made more money but why the number of telecom companies is decreasing every year? Where are Docomo, Aircel, Rcom, Virgin, MTS, Telenor now?

    Again – Since more people are using more internet, mobile etc, these companies should’ve thrived right but why is the opposite happening? Why aren’t new companies starting in this sector that is growing everyday?

    If the management wants then BCG can start doing more business here and it can start scaling up it’s business from the very next second but the thing is ultimately it should bring more value to the stakeholders and not lose the value. What’s the point in doing something and not getting anything in return? (or worse losing more money). They can’t do something just for the sake of doing it. Whatever they do, it should make sense and benefit everyone. You should know when to hit a six and when to defend. You can’t expect to hit sixers for every ball. What if BCG invests hundreds of crores and ends up losing it all trying to grow it’s business here? That time will the naysayers come and absorb all the losses?

    If y’all have noticed, most of the times many naysayers target(ed) only me. They do that because I don’t let them getaway with their bullshit. I’ll always counter them with logical answers so at the end what they do is they know they can’t influence me so they start calling me paid agent and try to make me the enemy. They think that we don’t have any brains or free will or we can’t think independently.

    Some months back one guy suddenly came and started calling me paid agent. I was little sad at that time but now I can’t stop laughing about it. Let him give a complaint against me to any law agency and let them probe me. When they find that I’m not associated with the CEO, company, promoters, management etc, I’ll sue the shit out of him for falsely accusing me. He has called many other people as paid agents aswell and I’ll contact those people and make sure that they also sue the shit out of him. I’ll make sure that he respects everyone and start behaving well with everyone. There’s a limit to everything. Just because he doesn’t agree with someone doesn’t give him the right to falsely accuse them. I would’ve debated with him had he made his arguments with facts (or common sense). These people don’t even understand what a healthy debate is. Whoever disagrees with them is a paid agent. Even I can call him a paid agent and accuse him of weird things but I’m not gonna do that as I don’t want to get down to his level. Like I’ve said many times in the past, I respect everyone and I don’t want any enmity with anyone (especially during these covid times when everyone is struggling).

    in reply to: General Discussion #13033
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks @Abhishek. I think BCG is the most misunderstood stock in our markets and one of the main reasons is because people don’t understand the business properly. Forget SSP, DSP, DMP, Supply Side, Demand side, programmatic, receivables etc many don’t even understand the importance of investing in technology, updating existing products, tools etc. For them TTD is a pure tech company but BCG is not. It’s so damn irritating to see those loose comments. It’s okay if TTD doesn’t pay dividend but BCG should pay 40% of the profits as dividends to prove the numbers are genuine. If an ad-tech company does that then who will provide the capital to invest in technology?

    Things change so fast in the industry and you have to be ready for everything. Now “Metaverse” is gaining a lot of popularity and everyone is investing in that. Facebook even changed it’s name to META. I don’t know how it plays out in the long run but almost everyone says that it has huge potential. BCG has to be ready for that and how will it be ready if it doesn’t invest heavily in technology? Developing important products is not so easy and requires money and skills. If they don’t do that and instead pay dividend then BCG will end up losing it’s business. One of the main reasons they issue more shares for acquisitions and don’t take on debt is because the cash flow is tight and majority (99%) of the cash should be dedicated for technology (product development etc). You have to look at other areas before everyone starts investing there. BCG was one of few companies to start programmatic advertising in video at an earlier stage and that’s why it is still in business and if the management had waited till DAUM case got settled then we wouldn’t have seen growth in the business now. Getting back Lycos may have lifted the stock but it never would’ve sustained if BCG had not invested in the right technology.

    For me MediaMint is hundred times better than getting back Lycos. Investing in audio ad tech is more important than Lycos. Next generation “Metaverse” is more important than 20th century Lycos. I have massive respect for Lycos and BCG is what it is today because of Lycos but the company has to move on from that. We had great players like Sachin, Dravid, Ganguly, Kumble then later Sehwag, Yuvraj Singh, Dhoni etc but team India moved on from them. Next Virat Kohli will go and then other current players will also go but what is more important is having a strong team that can compete and adapt to the changes. Lycos case is similar. In Football, Messi and Ronaldo will go and new players will come (like Haaland and MBappe). In cricket you can somehow manage with more old players but football is not like that. If a club invests more in old players instead of investing in young players then it can’t compete properly and later will become a loser club (like how Barcelona is now). Ad-tech industry is like football. IT industry is like Cricket.

    It took years to pay off India debt because the cash flows were tight. Not just investing in technology but the management also has to worry about the receivable issues. Genius people on MMB highlight about BCG’s receivables all the time but why do they fail to see TTD having receivables that are more than double of it’s revenues? TTD has payables more than it’s revenues which is not a very positive thing if we compare with “IT” companies.

    Another great argument is that – Since BCG is an Andhra based company it’s a shell company it seems. So by that logic even Tanla is a shell company. Thousands of companies that operate there are all shell companies then. After Bangalore, Hyderabad is the next place for software and technology and companies from all over the world are investing heavily in Hyderabad. Giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Uber etc have a big presence there but these genius people don’t see all that. And MediaMint management and founders are fools to sell their company to a shell company and their clients are fools to continue doing business with a shell company (after the acquisition). If the clients won’t be okay with that then the founders wouldn’t have sold their company. The core management is staying after the acquisition and why would they want to work in a shell company or be associated with one? Respected people like Mr.Acharya and Satish Cheeti are fools to join a shell company risking their reputation.

    Many things have happened in the past that brought negative sentiment and there’s no denying that but concentrating only on that and cleverly miss pointing out the good things looks stupid to a common man like me. In our market, for some people, common sense is a luxury actually. I get goosebumps when I read some comments about BCG. Company changed it’s name so it’s a fake company, people who talk facts are all paid agents and many other great comments from great researchers. One 20 something guy with many followers once mocked BCG for changing names. The CEO started the company when that guy needed someone to “change” his diapers. The CEO has seen and experienced everything (dot com bubble, the great recession, shifting of advertising to programmatic etc etc) but some loser guy who doesn’t know shit about the company and the industry mocks him for name change. Time to leave the planet meme comes to my mind. Copying Warren Buffett’s quotes and tweeting them all the time is easy but building a company from scratch and being one of the top players in the world is not so simple and requires great skills.

    It’s so boring for me also to repeat these things again and again but there’s no choice, if we (long term investors) don’t do that then there’ll be vultures waiting to prey on BCG. They don’t even bother to peddle fake information about the company. I don’t know how they get the heart to peddle fake information. Talking about negative things is always fine but talking stupid things just because they don’t understand things is so damn irritating. Unfortunately there’s no vaccine for stupidity.

    in reply to: General Discussion #13027
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Man, I really can’t understand why real/serious investors take discussions on MMB seriously. 99% of the people who write there are traders and the others who call themselves long term investors are at best momentum investors and not long term investors who understand companies better. It was once full of good people who used to discuss important topics but now it’s a complete joke.

    One trader who doesn’t know basic stuff about the company (and who sold BCG at 9 pre-bonus) says that BCG is not a pure tech company but The Trade Desk is. I don’t know whether to laugh at this comment or laugh at his ignorance. The basis for all his so called “research” is that the standalone numbers (parent company) is too small. Only in our markets we see these genius comments. Many dudes don’t even understand the concept of a holding company.

    It’s not making money in India so everything is fishy. It can make money in the US but why can’t it do the same here? One common sense is that India market is not as big as the US market. And the developments happening here are still at an early stage compared to a mature market like the US. I can relate it to football. Football Clubs in Europe make more money than clubs here. Why is it like that? There also they play the same sport and here also it’s the same sport why such a gap? And every big investor wants to buy clubs in Europe (especially in England) but not many want to buy here, why?

    It’s all market boss. Our country is still developing in this sport and it’ll take years (maybe a decade or more) for us to reach the levels of European countries.

    More people are playing football here and why can’t India win or qualify for the world cups? And why can’t clubs make more money here? The population is more than 130crs so the market is big. The clubs are all lying. Such a big market but they are not making money here. Something is fishy.

    Even if you bring GOAT (greatest of all time) Messi here and play him in an Indian club against an European club you still can’t win against them. It’s not only about players but the system also. The defense should be very solid and the midfield should support the attack and the defense. The European clubs will make sure that the ball never reaches Messi and they’ll freeze him out. Bringing Messi to play here will be a huge mistake. First we should develop players here and improve them and that is what our country is doing. Compared to the past, football in our country is developing a lot and with time it can only get better.

    Look at the average salaries of players in EPL clubs. Average salary of the best team Manchester City is more than £9M (90 crs+). Even the average salary of smaller clubs like Brighton, Burnley etc is more than £2.5M (25crs). This is average salary and the overall salary of big clubs like Man City is £220M (more than 2200crs) and for smaller clubs it is at least £35-40M (350crs+).

    The total salary of an Indian Super League club you ask? It is just 16.5crs (which is less than £2M) and remember it is not the average salary but the total salary. So what it means is that one EPL player (on average) earns more money than the whole squad earns here.

    Many clubs in ISL are running at a loss even if the viewership has increased every year and more good players are playing here compared to the past.

    (No one can beat our country when it comes to cricket and IPL is the best example. Even in other countries they play these leagues but they’re not as big as it is here. Pharma, IT and other industries are like that here. US is very bad at cricket and it’ll take decades for them to reach India’s level)

    Why am I talking about all these and wasting everyone’s time? Because it’s all common sense. The company right away can’t start scaling up it’s business here and it can’t make more money here. Everything takes time. They will start doing it at the right time and acquiring MediaMint is the first step. First they’ll start with backend and slowly start scaling up the frontend. Slow and steady wins the race. Remember the hare and the tortoise story? What happens if you try to take decisions without patience?

    Also if the company tries scaling up here and if it incurs losses then the same genius people will start criticizing it. The management and the CEO know what they are doing and it’s best to leave these things to them. If you are not okay with it then please ask them instead of whining about it and trying to influence others with your genius.

    When it comes to standalone vs consolidated, even InMobi’s standalone and consolidated numbers are similar to BCG’s. And the company is planning to list in the US instead of listing it here. Why? When I said our market doesn’t understand ad-tech companies properly some people mocked me but still they haven’t answered questions like these.

    The other important thing is in the US you don’t report standalone and consolidated numbers separately. You just report consolidated numbers.

    Okay BCG is a very bad company because the standalone numbers are bad but what about companies that have listed through SPAC routes? There the holding company doesn’t even do any business and the numbers will be close to zero. Their only purpose is to hold the acquired companies. They won’t even have a proper office and employees.

    Some people won’t even know shit about shit but they’ll try to influence everyone. So investors should be aware of all these things before they get influenced by genius comments. Always do your own research and talk to the CEO, management and then decide whether to buy or sell. Most people on sites like MMB don’t know what the reality is.

    I’ll write more about these genius things in the future and expose their lack of knowledge. Since I’m very busy I’m not getting the time.

    in reply to: General Discussion #13018
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Even I didn’t get any link/mail for the AGM and the only mail I got was for the e-voting. Since I was very busy all these days, I forgot to vote. Can someone please record the AGM and share it with us. It’ll be very helpful for those of us who can’t attend the AGM.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12982
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    (Replying to #12973)

    Thanks @PBB and sorry for the late reply. I don’t think I deserve that, I only wanted everyone to understand the reality. The main reason I mentioned that song was because it suits ours (shareholders) and the company’s situation/journey perfectly.

    “I’ve done my sentence but committed no crime” can be related to the stock price crash. Though no crime was committed but still the stock price crashed (mainly due to lack of understanding of the company’s situation). People took irrelevant things like DAUM and Axis case seriously and neglected the important things like product development, receivable issues etc. They just wanted the stock price to go up and didn’t bother about the problems the company faced.

    “And bad mistakes I’ve made a few” can be related to merging with LGS and later inheriting the debt which turned into NPAs. The company had to pay more than 300crs for one bad mistake.

    “You brought me fame and fortune and everything that goes with it” can be related to the popularity that BCG is getting now.

    “It’s been no bed of roses, no pleasure cruise” can be related to the past history where we all (CEO/management/shareholders) suffered. I still remember the tough days during Lycos-DAUM case. Even recently the Axis court case was similar.

    Mid and late 2010s period was very bad for ad-tech companies. Many growing ad-tech companies went out of business during that period. When I didn’t understand many things properly even I thought that the CEO was not taking things seriously but when I started doing more research and when I started following the ad-tech industry closely, I understood that the CEO was doing the right thing and that I was wrong to judge him harshly. Criteo which was once valued more than all the other ad-tech companies combined, slid more than 90%, Magnite Inc was trading at prices less than $1.5 just 2 years back. People never saw all these and they just complained 24/7 about the CEO which I didn’t like.

    People who were criticizing him just few weeks back have started praising him because the stock price went up. That looks very artificial to me. We support our favorite team whether they win or lose but some people will only support when the team wins. There’ll be rough patches where our team will lose more than winning but what is important is whether they are playing well and whether they have the commitment required. If they have that then it’s just a matter of time that they’ll start winning. Just few weeks back people were mocking me when I compared BCG with companies like TTD, Criteo, Magnite, PubMatic etc but now BCG is bigger than most of these companies (except TTD, Liveramp etc). In the past 1-2 weeks, BCG has beat Magnite, Criteo, PubMatic, Tremor International and now it is the largest public ad-tech company in India.

    Like I’ve said before, for BCG to be in this position, the CEO deserves all the credit. He took the right decisions at the right time and now because of that the company is doing very well. Doubling profits in a tough year is not easy.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12961
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Today BCG’s market cap is higher than Magnite’s and PubMatic’s (not combined).

    It’s a great milestone and as I wrote in my previous post, all the credit should go to the CEO.

    “Brave Men Who Work While Others Sleep, Who Dare While Others Fly”

    Underdogs do win and even though BCG is bigger than all these companies (business wise), it was always an underdog. Hell, BCG was an underdog to Affle also!!!!

    If BCG got just 10% of the hype that Affle got then the situation/perception would’ve been way different (I’m not talking anything negative about Affle and I admire it a lot).

    Let’s see how long it’ll take to beat Criteo

    ($2.3B vs $2.5B)

    in reply to: General Discussion #12954
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks @admin and @odysee for the appreciation and also for always supporting me. You’ve supported me during very tough times and because of you I didn’t quit writing in the forum.


    @admin
    , on behalf of everyone I would like to thank you for starting this forum and for providing a very good platform for people to share their views. You started this forum when there was so much uncertainty about the company. On other platforms many people took advantage of the company/stock’s situation and they spread so much misinformation which scared many investors. After you started this forum no one is getting the courage to spread fake news and even if they do people aren’t giving any importance as they are fact checking them. People can do that because all the important information about the company is available in this forum.

    All these years every conversation about BCG would be only about DAUM case and India debt but I wanted everyone to understand the real value of BCG which didn’t/doesn’t depend on those 2 things. Now people/market have started to understand the real value of BCG and that’s why BCG is trading at a good valuation. All these years it was undervalued and now it is underrated. Also compared to its real peers, BCG is still way undervalued and underrated. For the growth rates that BCG has, it should command a premium valuation.

    BCG’s success wasn’t achieved overnight and it took years of hard work and for the company to be here standing tall, all the credit should go to the CEO. If it wasn’t for him, the company wouldn’t have achieved this much success. Haters and naysayers threw stones at him but he turned those stones into milestones. Today (or yesterday or maybe someday this week) BCG became the most valued public ad-tech company in India. It’s a great achievement considering all the challenges faced by the CEO and the management team.

    He always took the right decisions and because of that the company could achieve so much. Any other CEO would’ve panicked and would’ve taken some temporary measure which in the long run wouldn’t have helped the company which in turn wouldn’t have helped the shareholders. One example is starting Brightcom (programmatic ad platform) and investing more for the future. Any other person would’ve delayed starting something like Brightcom and would’ve concentered more on Lycos. The company started Brightcom at the right time and delaying it would’ve cost it later. During that period, many other ad-tech companies didn’t move quickly (or took too much time to adapt to the changes) and because of that they could never establish themselves properly and lost their businesses. Some even went bankrupt or were sold to others for peanuts.

    Many people didn’t understand all these important things and they simply accused the CEO of weird things. They think it’s easy to run a company like BCG. If the CEO had concentrated on Lycos and if he had ignored the business then we wouldn’t have seen the great growth rates that BCG is having now. Like I wrote in one of my previous posts (I quoted Warren Buffett’s quote which applies to BCG)

    “Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago”

    Now people are writing/saying great things about the company but they are not giving enough credit to the CEO. If everyone remembers I wrote a thread about the CEO – titled “Suresh Reddy Underrated” and I wrote that when the stock was in single digits and when there was so much uncertainty. I praise/appreciate/support/back/defend people looking at their talents and their commitments and not looking at the results (stock price) or what others think or say about them. If I looked only at the results and if I had appreciated him after the stock price went up then that would’ve looked artificial. The people who were criticizing the CEO 24/7 when the stock was in lower digits have suddenly started praising him. I don’t understand that logic. I can’t criticize someone just because others are criticizing him/her and I always try to understand what the reality/situation is. And also I’m someone who supports people when they are down which gives them courage and hope.

    Market cap wise this week BCG beat Affle and hopefully, in the coming days, it should beat Magnite Inc, Criteo and PubMatic.

    (Extra note – I think Queen’s We Are The Champions song suits BCG’s situation perfectly, if you get time please go through the lyrics and you’ll understand what I’m saying)

    in reply to: General Discussion #12944
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    @brightspot, I think we’ll have to wait till the AGM to get an answer for that. Maybe (my guess) it’s a dilution because when they gave that notice for board meeting, they have mentioned as board meeting for preferential issue so going by that they may issue more shares. The good thing (as mentioned by @hw_tw) is that MediaMint’s top management team are staying with BCG and also getting BCG’s shares.

    From now onwards everyone should be ready to see/hear negative comments about Vuchi Media / MediaMint because it is being acquired by BCG. Some people will say that this MediaMint is different and that BCG is acquiring a fake company. They get this confusion because it’s official name is Vuchi Media. Just like people used to say Brightcom was not part of Brightcom Group, now they’ll say there’s a real different MediaMint which is not associated with Vuchi Media etc.

    I hope they merge this company with the parent company so that the standalone numbers improve. I’m sick of seeing comments criticizing the parent/standalone company just because it doesn’t make that much money.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12930
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Then he made fun of BCG’s recent business growth (about more people spending more time online). I don’t know what to say about this. Why did Zoom make so much money last year? Why all the ad-tech companies are having great growth rates since 2020? Aren’t more people spending lot of time online? Why cloud companies are doing very well?

    The stock didn’t go up 10x because of OPM or ROE or ROCE or FCF. It went up because it was so undervalued. And it was undervalued because of many things. Being profitable and labeled an NPA had an impact and declaring one of your subsidiaries bankrupt played a part, losing one of your subsidiary in a court case played a part, ageing VC, PE funds selling your shares played a part and Axis taking you to courts played a part. So our actor should’ve studied about all these first and then he should’ve made that video.

    People worship these “holier than thou” attitude people (especially in bull markets) and they think that these people know everything about everything just because they have more followers. It’s left to people whether to take self-proclaimed experts like him seriously or not. I’m not saying he doesn’t have any skills or anything like that and also I’m not judging his skills. My point is he is way too biased and he doesn’t know the history of BCG properly and he was very selective and highlighted only the negatives.

    At the end it was clear that he didn’t want anyone to buy BCG’s shares and he wanted current investors to sell their shares and that time I realized that he made that video only to convey that message. He should’ve come to the point at the beginning itself instead of acting for 20mins or so. Total waste of time.

    As the company grows more and becomes more popular, many people who have missed the bus will start criticizing it for silly reasons. Some will criticize because they won’t understand anything properly. Some criticisms will be valid and some won’t make sense at all. Some people hate Mr.Shankar Sharma because he invested in BCG and others will hate BCG because Mr.Sharma invested in it. Usually in the investment world (or in life generally) everyone will hate everyone and all have “holier than thou” attitude. We should get used to all these things.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12929
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    When he talked about price movements, he just wanted to know why the stock price went up more than 10 times since 2016 when the profit increased only by 200crs since then. Then he put some technical chart to show that price movements since Google MCM partnership was up 169% and that was justifiable. He wanted answers for every up-move but never bothered to talk about why BCG was trading so low for many years. If he was unbiased he would’ve talked about the important issues that brought down the price of BCG. The stock was so undervalued that after many important fundamental developments it had to go up and reach a fair value which it did in just few weeks. If it was not so undervalued and if it was priced fairly then it wouldn’t have moved like it did. So it’s very very important to know about the history of any company and that’s why I often talked about the issues of BCG.

    (If everyone remembers I had written many important things about BCG’s past and why the share price fell. I tried to explain about many things/events that had happened in BCG’s past. Everyone will ask why BCG traded at low prices for years and all the answers were in that thread. It would’ve benefitted new investors who didn’t know BCG’s history properly. I also talked about the future and sometimes the impact any event had on BCG’s share price. The Admin had pinned those threads so that they were easily accessible to everyone who visits the forum.

    Almost everyone liked those but later some people tried to undermine whatever I wrote and they tried to bring the perception that the past events didn’t have any impact and knowing about those was simply a waste of time. They said that I share too much information and I had some hidden motto etc. I had almost quit the forum because of some people and thought whatever I wrote was not benefitting anyone so I requested the Admin to unpin those threads and to delete them.

    If any new investor wanted to know about BCG’s history and if they had any doubts/questions then they could’ve referred those threads and have their doubts sorted out. Now where will they get all that info easily? Whenever I write something, I try to make it understandable for everyone and not just for old investors. I don’t believe in half-assing something and I have this principle that if you do something you have to give your 100% but some people see it as something negative and they will try to influence others into believing it as a negative thing. It’s not my loss if they do that because I don’t lose anything.)

    Anyway, forgetting the past and coming back to the great show by our unbiased actor, he talked about Affle and how great it is. According to him, only Affle has utilized the funds properly and BCG has not. This is where our actor shows his bias clearly. He talked about Affle’s business after it came public but when he talked about BCG he only mentioned from 2016. It’s very easy to understand why he did that – BCG didn’t have good growth rates from 2016 to 2021 and throughout the video he was always highlighting about that period more. It’s not a secret that almost every company will come public when they expect to have higher growth rates. In Affle’s case he took into consideration from 2018 (the year before it came public) to till now but why didn’t he do the same with BCG? BCG came public in 2012 so if we take revenue of the previous year (2011) then it was 467crs and in 2014 it was 1663crs. Growth rates of a mature company will be way different than that of a young newly listed company.

    Affle

    2018

    Revenue – 167crs
    Profit – 28crs

    2021

    Revenue – 719crs
    Profit – 172crs

    Revenue up 4.3 times and profits up 6.14 times

    BCG

    2011

    Revenue – 467crs
    Profit – 50crs

    2014 – 1663crs
    Profit – 221crs

    Revenue up 3.5 times and profits up 4.42 times.

    This was a very good growth rate back then and remember that the industry didn’t have the tail-winds that it has now. Growing 3.5 times in 2011-14 was way tougher than growing 4.3 times in 2018-21.

    How many people were using mobile phones back then vs how many are using now? How was the technology back then? Were the phones, computers etc advanced like they are now? Was the internet speed very fast back then like it is now? Was the internet cost so cheap back then like it is now?? How many people were using internet back then and how many are using now? Was it so improved like it is now? We had 3G internet back then but we have 4G now and won’t it make any difference for online advertising companies?

    Also why didn’t he talk about the industry’s struggles before 2020? Almost every ad-tech company (except TTD) didn’t do well during 2016-20 and why not talk about that? He criticized BCG for wasting all the money but why didn’t he talk about the changes in the technology that forced BCG to make big changes? Digital ad technology moved to programmatic advertising and BCG had to adapt to that then later Apple, Google and other companies made changes to privacy policies and was that process so smooth? How many companies went out of business (or got acquired) during that period because they couldn’t keep up with the changes?

    If you are gonna talk about that period and the investments made then talk about the whole industry and other companies too. It’s simple as that.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12928
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    I don’t know about everyone’s opinion of that video about BCG by a Singaporean guy but for me it was a very good show to judge a person’s acting skills. Damn, he pretended very hard not to be biased and at the beginning he was good but later as the “show” went on he showed that he couldn’t act properly and clearly showed his bias. People like me will not watch these “shows” if the acting is not good. Unfortunately acting is not everyone’s cup of tea.

    I liked his analysis too basing everything on BCG’s recent price movements rather than about the company’s fundamentals, it’s past, the events that have occurred etc and also whenever he talked about fundamentals, you could easily see that he wanted to highlight the “negatives”. And those “negative” things are negative because he thinks so and not because they are necessarily negative. He talked about BCG spending too much money on Capex and not growing the business. He said that the company has been investing a lot since 2010 but it hasn’t been able accelerate sales growth. But BOSS missed seeing the revenue growth from 2010 till the latest quarter. As per his screener, the revenue in 2010 was 384crs and in TTM September it was 3336crs. Isn’t that a good growth rate? More funnily, he was very desperate to highlight from 2016 leaving out the past.

    He talked about BCG’s management giving away equity which was a bad sign and said they should’ve taken on debt. It’s a good advice but then after making this video on November 30th, few days later (on Dec 3rd) he has written about how even most well trained businesses struggle to manage their debt.

    Let me quote that tweet of his here :

    “When people are debt-free, they can do amazing things.

    Start businesses, pursue passion and whatnot.

    Realistically speaking: even most well trained businesses struggle to manage their debt. Expecting individuals to do it, is just plain wrong.”

    So it’s one thing on YouTube but the opposite thing on Twitter. Hero becomes Villain in just 3 days. Only for BCG debt would’ve been good but for every other business (and people) debt would be very bad (and wrong). Boss we get that you are very biased but at least have some awareness about what you said just 3 days back. You can’t say one thing today and say completely opposite thing after just 3 days. You can’t flip things around just because you hate BCG.

    He also talked about FIIs exit and from his and any random investor’s perspective it looks like a bad thing but we know why they sold and the impact it had on the share price. If he was unbiased I wouldn’t have had any complaints on this but since he pretended to know everything about the company, he should’ve checked properly before commenting. For example, about Oak, had he done enough research he could’ve known why they exited. He doesn’t know why they sold but still tried to make up a conspiracy around it. He said if Oak knew BCG had a good future then they wouldn’t have sold but my point is how could they have held their shares even after their fund was closed?

    in reply to: General Discussion #12903
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Damn, I never knew that your profits become legit only if you pay dividend. Google, Facebook, The Trade Desk, Magnite Inc, PubMatic etc don’t pay dividends which means all the profits they are making are not legit/real.

    It’s funny how some ignorant people try to fool others and funnier than that is how some investors get fooled by those ignorant people. When you decide to follow someone then it’s important for you to understand their level of knowledge in that particular field. Comparing BCG with an IT company just because both are in technology field is the silliest thing someone can do and raising questions based on that comparison gets me laughing non-stop.

    Some people don’t even understand product development, intangibles etc and they actually consider them as a crime. IT companies don’t have to worry about that so they pay dividend but what about pure-tech companies like BCG? All these years had BCG given dividends and not invested in product development then we wouldn’t have witnessed these levels of growth now.

    “Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago”

    Ad-tech industry is not like the IT industry and things change all the time. Yesterday it was Apple, next year it’ll be Google (Chrome) and later maybe Android will also change their privacy policies. Shouldn’t the company work on this and invest appropriate sums for that? Should you compromise the future of your company and pay dividends?

    Except The Trade Desk, almost all the ad-tech companies have struggled in the past because they weren’t ready to adapt to technological changes/challenges. Everyone can check the struggles of companies like Magnite (Rubicon Project), Perion Network, RocketFuel Inc, Marin Software etc etc. Running a company like BCG is not as easy as sitting at home and commenting.

    All the traditional TV ads are shifting to CTVs and the opportunity there is huge. Shouldn’t BCG invest in that? Will shareholders benefit if BCG has good market share in CTV or will we benefit if we get more dividends?

    Not everyone who comments on a particular stock/company will be an investor. Most of the people who comment on sites like MMB are traders (not necessarily day traders) and momentum investors. Most (not all) won’t even know what type of a company BCG is. They check Moneycontrol or Screener or ET and think BCG as an IT company because these websites mention BCG as an IT company and all their “research” will be based on that.

    in reply to: Questions to ask / Post-Conference Update #12895
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    I’ll just share my opinions on some topics instead of updating everyone about the call. I think @jay69, @hw_tw, @odysee and @admin have covered every topic perfectly.

    For me this was the best conference call by miles. The important takeaway from the call was about 3 things – Growth, RoE and FCF. As I have written many times in the past, for me, before anything else, growth in the business is the most important thing. Companies get premium valuations if there’s growth in the business. You don’t get premium valuations just because you pay dividend or buyback shares. Those will get you a good valuation, but without growth, the valuations won’t sustain for long.

    I have one complaint though but it’s about the callers and not the management or the CEO. I’m not talking about any individual but I’m talking generally. Some questions are very repetitive and people keep asking the same ones in every call. Questions on topics like promoters’ holding, dividends, Lycos, profits, Mutual Funds etc etc. All these are so easy to understand and there’s no need to ask the CEO about them in every conference call. Many people with very important questions will be waiting to ask their queries and because of these repetitive questions they won’t get a chance.

    Promoters’ holding/shareholding pattern is so easy to understand, just by looking at the percentage of the holding (where there’s a decrease) some people come to the conclusion saying that promoters sold their shares etc. Just spending 2 minutes we can get the proper answer. The fact that the CEO has to answer this in every call is little annoying.

    Then the queries on profits/dividends are very irritating for me to listen to. Dividends are a waste of money for a growing company. We don’t see people asking companies like TTD, Magnite, PubMatic etc for dividends. This is not 2012 or 2013 anymore. All the information about the company is available on the net and people should check the industry, peers etc before commenting. Judging companies like BCG on dividend payment is like judging a pure-batsman on how many wickets he takes.

    Ad-tech companies are like proper batsmen, they should be judged based on how many runs they score (growth) and not how many wickets they take (dividends). There’ll be some all-rounders who’ll get both runs (growth) and wickets (dividends) and ad-tech companies won’t be like that. Maybe IT companies are like that and if you want an all-rounder then you’ll have to invest in those companies and not in an ad-tech company like BCG.

    Now the ad-tech industry is like T-20 cricket. All these years it used to be like ODI or like a Test but after the pandemic things have changed. Just like how every ball is important in T-20 cricket, for ad-tech companies every paisa/rupee is very important. Missing one ball can cost you a match and in the ad-tech market missing good opportunities will cost your business a lot. If BCG doesn’t move quickly into the audio ad field then other companies will get into it and they will become leaders there and later it’ll be very hard for BCG to get into.

    Also, who in their right mind will pay more dividends when they have plans to acquire 2 companies? 3 if you count Lycos also. This is so easy to understand which many people don’t get.

    In every conference call you can expect at least one query on dividends and the CEO will give the same answer to all those queries but still people won’t stop asking them. It’s so boring and I’m hoping these type of queries won’t be asked in the next call.

    in reply to: Questions to ask / Post-Conference Update #12858
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    @hw_tw, thank you for taking the time and effort in preparing these excellent questions. You have covered every topic perfectly.


    @admin
    , this is my list of questions. I have left out the ones which are similar to @hw_tw’s.

    To the CEO,

    Congratulations on a great quarter. On behalf of all the shareholders we would like to thank you for all your efforts, and for taking good decisions (even during tough times) that benefited all the stakeholders and also for answering all our queries with patience and for conducting conference calls every quarter without fail. We always look forward to these calls as we get more confidence after listening to you speak.

    Queries

    -Can you talk about India’s ad-tech/online advertising market. We don’t have much information about the market as it is not well covered like in the US. We wanted to know how different it is from other markets (like US, Europe, LatAm, China etc).

    -Now that there’s growth in the business without additional funds, do you see the necessity of an LOC?

    -Do you expect Android to make similar changes to its privacy policy like Apple/iOS did?

    -What’s the impact of global supply chain issues on BCG (and it’s subsidiaries)? Does it lead to a cut in ad-budget by advertisers?

    -Do you have plans to acquire a CTV ad company?

    -What headwinds do you see for ad-tech companies in the future?

    -Annual Report and AGM updates

    in reply to: General Discussion #12843
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    The results are flattish because there’s no growth in EPS. The company has to perform better than this because all that matters is EPS and not the actual growth in business. Profits doubling doesn’t matter. 72% growth in revenue also doesn’t matter. Adding new clients and expecting better free cash flows in the future also doesn’t matter.

    When warrants were converted to shares I wrote that ratio investors would start saying that promoters sold their shares and I was right on that. Now ratio investors are saying there’s no growth in the business because EPS is same.

    Forget understanding the business, some people can’t even read P&L statement. I seriously don’t know what to say. Common sense is a luxury for some people. In this day and age some people behave as if they are living in stone age.

    I forgot to mention one more thing – I thought only Mr.Peshwa Acharya was naive but it turns out another well respected professional Mr.Satish Cheeti is also naive. He’s joining this fake company willingly. It’s fake because it makes 98% profits outside of India. If you’re an Indian company and if you do more business outside India then actually it’s a crime. I love this logic.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12837
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Regarding Affle, it gets a premium valuation because of many reasons but I think there are 2 that are most important. One is that it came to the market at the right time where market factors benefited it. BCG was too early and companies that come early often do poorly. As they say “being too early is the same as being wrong” and we experienced it with BCG. Second is that Microsoft has a stake in it and that brought a lot of good press, publicity and people were ready to value it at premium levels. BCG also had many FIIs but they weren’t that well known. And the great thing about Affle is that it has good growth rates. BCG also had good growth rates like Affle but the 150cr write off and later declaring the loan as NPA brought a lot of negative press.

    Regarding the CEO, Mr.Reddy, he’s very talented and that he knows what is important and what is not. I have massive respect for him and I have written about it many times also. One thing that he has to improve on is that giving one timeline and not committing to it and because of that many people lost trust in him and the company. He has all the good intentions – He conducts conference calls without fail and answers all the questions patiently (even some silly and stupid some questions) but sometimes he makes few mistakes and that overshadows good things. For example – when the company wanted to raise money through warrants last year, they didn’t say why it was needed and that caused everyone to make up hundreds of conspiracy theories. Had they informed us that they would use the money to acquire an audio ad company then everyone would’ve supported the CEO and the management.

    Compared to the past, he has improved a lot and he’s understanding the market better. First the management’s attitude was – if we do the business well then the market would take care of the valuations automatically but when that didn’t happen, they changed their thinking. From 2019, they have improved a lot actually and it’s getting better and better. Now that the valuation has reached a decent level, there’ll be more scrutiny and hope they are ready to face that. All these years most of the critics were silly people on MMB and people with less followers on Twitter but now many stone-aged self-proclaimed experts with more following will start criticizing the company. They’ll compare it with some random IT/software companies (like Mastek or Happiest Minds or Tanla etc) and they’ll say BCG doesn’t deserve this valuation etc. Because of these type of people many start-ups didn’t list here and they waited till 2020 to list here. The CEO has to be ready to face tougher crowd/audience.

    in reply to: General Discussion #12836
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks @odysee, and sorry for the late reply. All these days I didn’t get time to reply to your message as I was very busy.

    You are 100% right about other ad-tech companies’ valuations. Even though they have corrected, they still command better valuations compared to BCG. I wrote that post because I wanted everyone to know how other ad-tech stocks were performing. Some people were desperately trying to bring unwanted negative perception when BCG corrected. They think in the whole world only BCG corrects and rest all stocks always go up or they have this thinking that only for other companies market factors matter but for BCG the same things don’t matter. Those people are so childish and their arguments are so silly and I really can’t understand why investors give/gave so much importance to these silly people. What I don’t like about some people is that they don’t hesitate misguiding others. Their mindset and thinking are so rigid and they are not open to new ideas or opinions. They don’t feel any guilt after misguiding others and that really is a bad personality.

    After Magnite didn’t do as per expectations, other ad-tech stocks fell but when TTD and PubMatic did well, all the ad-tech stock did very well. This shows that markets (everywhere) are not efficient and that investors have herd mentality. After Magnite’s results, TTD fell 10% and just because Magnite didn’t do so well (it actually did pretty well but not as per expectations), people sold TTD’s shares. I really can’t understand this logic. If everyone was rational and if the market was efficient all the time then people would’ve waited till TTD’s results to come to any conclusion about TTD. It’s simple as that.

    Regarding supply chain issues, people are worried because they think advertisers (brands) may cut their ad budget which impacts most ad-tech companies directly. I don’t know how these things play out in the near-future. I did ask about inflation (which is related to supply chain issues) in the last conference call questionnaire that we sent and the CEO said that it doesn’t impact that much. I think the 3rd quarter (which is 4th quarter in the US) will be very interesting. Because of the holiday season there’ll be more shopping and travelling activities. The important thing is travel is reaching pre-Covid levels which is positive for ad-tech companies. There’ll be lot of travel, tourism, hotels, leisure related advertisements. These industries didn’t advertise after Covid outbreak.

    On BCG’s valuation, BCG will get the valuation it deserves when the whole market understands it’s business properly. I think people are finally understanding the importance of investing in technology and they’re understanding that not all tech companies are “IT companies”. There’s still a long way to go but I’m glad that people are putting efforts and are actually trying to understand the company’s business and operations. There are still many people who are not that mature and they don’t even bother checking what the reality is. They say BCG’s receivables are scam without checking other ad-tech companies’ receivables. Magnite, TTD, PubMatic all have receivables almost double their revenues whereas BCG has little over 1/3rd it’s revenues. They think Affle (which has a completely different business model) is the only ad-tech company there is. Just because other companies aren’t listed here doesn’t mean we have to ignore them. We all understand this but those self-proclaimed experts will never understand.

    As I’ve written many times before, when there are outstanding issues pending, the upside will be limited and when there are no outstanding issues, the downside will be limited. I even said that people who were trash talking about the CEO/company when the stock price was low will start praising him when the stock goes up and I’m proven right. DAUM case was very big back then but now (because of this forum) no one is worried about that. Only few ignorant people who can’t understand what’s happening think that Lycos/Daum is important.

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