Shareholding Pattern – Analysis

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Viewing 20 posts - 121 through 140 (of 146 total)
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  • #10020
    buffet
    Registered Boarder

    @rathi_b,

    In general, how much time exchanges would take to approve the warrants? any timelines e.g. 2 weeks/4 weeks etc? The stock price would be range-bound around ~10 till then I guess.

    #10021
    sobha
    Registered Boarder

    @rathi_b,Thank you very much. Your comments are confidence boosting

    #10022
    Rathi_b
    Registered Boarder

    Thanks to the admin for the forum. Because of him and this forum all the meetings with SKR were possible, you people are a constant motivation for us to meet and discuss important issues with SKR. Just remember we collectively amount to a lot of credibility and respect in the company. Let’s now for all our sake and stake in this organisation hope that we finally earn the money we rightfully deserve. Thank you admin for all your efforts in keeping us intact through a very difficult phase in the market.

    #10023
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    Everything depends on 2 things. Execution from the company’s side and perception/sentiment from the market side. If the company takes good decisions then it doesn’t matter if retail investors hold more shares.

    When Tanla was trading below 10-20, it had more than 65k retail shareholders (share capital up to Rs. 1 lakh) and they held 45% of the company. Tanla also issued warrants etc but they were mostly to promoters and they didn’t dilute like how BCG is diluting.

    Recently, we saw how the price went up from 4.7 to 9 even in spite of the issuance of warrants. This shows that the market doesn’t care about dilution and all it cares about is actions from the company’s side. The market just wants the company to get past all the issues. All these years the company was struggling for value recognition but that is changing now, most of the market participants understand BCG’s value thanks to 2 things –
    1. Affle coming to the market.
    2. The COVID-19 pandemic which made people understand the importance of digital sector especially new age technology.

    Though I don’t give much importance to things like Axis and Daum, I understand how much impact these have on the sentiment and the valuation of the company. Nobody likes to come on board if a company has pending issues. Would anyone agree to live in a rented house if the owner/house had any litigation? Here also it’s the same. Good thing is that magnitude of the issues is not as big as how people are thinking about them.

    ICICI Direct wrote this about Affle – We believe the rally in Affle is just tip of the iceberg and can see sustained rally for many years. People are seeing Affle as a new age company but when they see BCG they see only India debt, pledged shares, Lycos-Daum etc.

    There should be a shift in how people see the company -when they think of BCG people should start seeing more of Brightcom and less of Lycos. That is when BCG will become famous. ICICI Direct and others won’t look at BCG now because of the market cap and low PE multiple but they’ll praise the same company when it reaches certain valuation.

    #10024
    bitran
    Registered Boarder

    Well said Logan ji.. We need to see closures of pending issues at the earliest. This will help to improve the market sentiment and really want to see our company coming out of penny status. Really fed up of seeing this sub 10 range and continuous UCs & LCs. Recently there were reports about Inmobi IPO this year and atleast by then we should reach at a respectable valuation. As inmobi is softbank backed, there will be lot of noises and sector highlights at that time and we should be ready to capitalise on that sentiments to take the company valuation at par with its peers. Eagerly waiting for LOC announcement also as that gives a befitting reply to the naysayers and those who advocate cookbook theory.

    #10025
    Raj
    Registered Boarder

    Funny part is moneycontrol forum still shows as Lycos Internet and not brightcom Group. 😊

    #10026
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    @bitran, if InMobi comes to the market then it’ll be very good for BCG. The whole perception will change about BCG. Like BCG, InMobi also has many subsidiaries. Parent company’s business is very less compared to the whole – just like BCG. If you remember, many people made up nonsense theories about BCG because it has many subsidiaries. These people won’t look at the proper information-this is the problem when there are more retail investors. They give importance to rumours than basic common sense.

    Don’t get me wrong but Indian retail investors don’t understand how new age technology companies operate – also they can’t be blamed because there aren’t many new age companies trading in India. The main reason Pubmatic listed in the US instead of India is because of this, people don’t understand the business well enough. Affle listed here and it won but we can’t be sure every company will be successful (listing wise). If COVID-19 hadn’t happened then many tech companies would still be trading at lower levels.

    Sometimes being too early will be bad which happened with BCG. If BCG had listed here in 2017-18 or later then the market cap would be way higher (even if it had issues).

    One of the reasons Tanla is gaining attention is because of listing of Route Mobile. Route got good attention in its IPO and when people compared it with Tanla they saw a bigger and maybe better company trading at lower valuation. The same would’ve happened with BCG when Affle listed here but since BCG had pending issues it didn’t happen.

    #10027
    vgsatwork
    Registered Boarder

    Looking at the SHP, the bigger message is G gang seems to be out(about 7 crore shares) and all the shares came to open market and eventually into retail share holders hands – just like what happened when 3.5 crore shares of Oak were sold in open market back in June 2020. This is concerning that no shareholder with sizeable holding is available to keep the management in check. Not sure if all of them have moved out giving up their hope on management or they knew something that we retail shareholders don’t and they are taking whatever is the best offer that they can get (Given that all these shareholders were with BCG for many years now) in the open market and moved their investment out of Brightcom.

    For us retail investors, the prudent thing would be to more vigilant and speak up if something abnormal or out of the ordinary happens to safeguard our interests

    #10028
    drjaysee
    Registered Boarder

    Dear Friends,

    In continuation with Post # 10008 & 10009,

    Promoters Holdings = 186,627,685 – No change
    Public Holdings = Reduced from 319,878,525 to 317,384,525 (Reduced by 24,94,000 which has been observed by FII)

    Public Increased Qnty
    PRAVEEN KHURANA = 600000
    GEETHA PATHEJA = 105000
    Clearing Members = 3526500
    Total = 4231500

    Public – Decreased Qnty (A)
    Non-Resident Indian (NRI) = 8275481
    N ANIL KUMAR = 435108
    Bodies Corporate = 50002636
    Total = 58713225

    Public – Missing Qnty (B)
    RAJESH GOENKA = 13200000
    PRIYA PRAKASH = 18420691
    AKG FINVESTPRIVATE LTD = 25350000
    Uno Metals Ltd = 25350000
    Total = 69120691
    So, the above Decreased (A) & Missing (B) quantities of 12,78,33,916 has been observed by the retailers which is bit worrying thing.

    Appreciate if some of our experts could share your views in this regard.

    Thank you

    6+
    #10029
    drjaysee
    Registered Boarder

    Dear@vgsatwork, I am also thinking the same thing what you are thinking. Now the situation is confusing that why Rajesh Goenka, Priya Prakash, UNO & AKG exited (either totally exited or reduced their holding below 1%). Also Bodies Corporate decreased its holding by around 5Crs and NRIs reduced their holdings by 82.75lakhs (may be profit booking) and Anil Kumar reduced his holding by 4.35Lakhs (may be profit booking).

    Around 12.78 Crs has been observed by retailers as below;

    Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs : Increased from 406 to 518
    Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs : increased from 49058 to 58112

    If we get some good news in the coming days from the promoters then things will change otherwise SKR should think about it seriously to protect BCG’s reputation and also to prevent further manipulations on the pricing. Lets wait and see.

    5+
    #10030
    Optimus Prime 06
    Registered Boarder

    12.78crore share @5 rs will cost more than 63 crores…I don’t think retail investors can invest like this..even we have seen huge quantity buying and selling in sub 6 levels

    4+
    #10031
    Logan
    Registered Boarder

    One thing I’ve noticed is that people were frustrated with BCG for not closing off Axis issue and that may have led many people (maybe not the g gang) to exit or trim down their holdings. Except for this recent rally, the price didn’t move for many months and all the other tech companies’ shares were making all time highs and this led people to look at other companies.

    Many will think why should I hold this laggard when I can find many other opportunities.

    Also the g gang is not doing their usual frequent trades like they did in the past – maybe for the last 3 months or more. They’ve stopped it in BCG, Subex, Moldtek and Intense Technologies.

    #10032
    drjaysee
    Registered Boarder

    Dear @Logan, Totally agree with you.

    Let’s wait and watch Dec 2020 SHP of the following

    Subex (in which UNO is holding 67Lakhs & AKG Finvest is holding 75Lakhs as of Sep 2020 SHP).
    Mold-Tek Technologies Ltd (in which UNO is holding 4.73Lakhs & AKG Finvest is holding 4Lakhs as of Sep 2020 SHP)
    Intense Tech (in which UNO is holding 7.74 Lakhs & AKG Finvest is holding 7.7Lakhs as of Sep 2020 SHP).

    Let’s observe whether UNO & AKG will exit from Subex, Mold-Tek & Intense as well during Dec 2020 SHP.

    5+
    #10033
    sandyc316
    Registered Boarder

    I’m also curious to know how and why did the Goenkas leave so suddenly? From a script that they’ve been tormenting for more than 5 yrs! Were they really driven out by the new players or were they retired once their purpose was served (as someone mentioned in Moneycontrol)?
    Btw, BHAVIN Y MEHTA has reappeared today… maybe he likes trading in BCG. His company ALPHA LEON ENTERPRISES LLP has done bulk buying and selling today.

    #10036
    drjaysee
    Registered Boarder

    Dear @Admin, appreciate if you could share our BCG Investors Share Holding Table what you have prepared and circulated during Nov 2020 and we may ask our current shareholders to update the same as of now. Many thanks.

    3+
    #10037
    buffet
    Registered Boarder

    g-gang may not have sold completely. They are market makers. They may have redistributed their holding to several individual accounts each holding less than 1 percent. These Zaveri, Goenka & Mehta s may be part of same operator cartel acting in tandem. They are capable of doing anything at will. Live example is in front of us. Stock price deliberately supressed below warrant offering till AGM. It will remain range-bound till approval from exchanges. Afterwards, same cartel will take it to new highs. Blatant manipulation & greed.

    Many of us are holding BCG since 2012 & still at loss even after averaging several times. No other script have tested our patience & resolve like BCG. So many opportunities we have missed. I initially moved from tanla to BCG looking at its fundamentals when tanla was trading at 4-5, my biggest blunder & the saga continues. So many lost opportunities.

    The game is beyond our reckoning. No point in banging our head against the stone. Let’s see what lies ahead in coming days.

    #10038
    drjaysee
    Registered Boarder

    Dear@buffet,

    “Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs : Increased from 406 to 518” and the below 4 Big players disappeared and also Bodies corporate reduced their holding by around 5 Crs which clearly indicates your statement “They may have redistributed their holding to several individual accounts (increased by 112 accounts from Sep to Dec 2020) each holding less than 1 percent” (518-406=112).

    RAJESH GOENKA = 13200000
    PRIYA PRAKASH = 18420691
    AKG FINVESTPRIVATE LTD = 25350000
    Uno Metals Ltd = 25350000
    Bodies Corporate = 50002636u
    Total = Around 12.78 Crs in which 42.31 Lakhs shares has been observed by the existing share holders. Hence, approximately 12.4Crs shares may have been distributed to the new 112 or less accounts and also we may not be able to say all new 112 accounts are belongs to them.

    In conclusion, the above all exercises clearly shows that the operators have taken control on the share price again and they can very well play as per their wish since at least 10 Lakhs shares have been distributed to individual new accounts. This is just my perception.

    Experts, kindly share your views and I may be wrong in the calculations and perceptions. Let’s wait and watch the game again.

    5+
    #10039
    sobha
    Registered Boarder

    Friends,
    My hypothesis is as follows:

    My common sense points that if a person has 100 crore worth property and he is having 10 to 15 crore loan, he will try to sell a part of the property and settle the loan.

    The brightcom group has more than 10 profitable subsidiaries and was having a total loan of 350 crore rupees if not gone to any litigation and fully paid as demanded. This is: 250 crore to daum. Another hundred crores to Indian banks. The management could have sold any subsidiary getting more than that amount and come out of the loan. But they have not done that. Why?

    If the above said is a fact, why a sensible management reduces their stake in the company to 22% through huge dilution? If the entire business is a fraud, it can be explained. But from third party sources we know that, business is going well.

    So first of all we have to reject the theory of dilution. It could be a managed dilution where by actually the promoters are increasing their stake. Any sensible management will try to make an absolute control of the company when the growth in the foreseeable future is very high and they cannot do it in the future, once the price picks up.

    Suppose, the management want to increase the holding in the company to 70% or more, the following problem confront. The management doesn’t have the required money owing to the fact that they are first generation entrepreneurs.

    Promoters already hold directly 18.5 cr shares. Their proxi, Muskan hold 2.5cr. making the total 21 crore or 42%. For that, sum of 25 crore paid to muskan. They could have easily acquired 8 crore shares from Goenka and Priya Prakash for 50 crore. If they want to add further 6 crore shares, that will not get below 150 crore as it will be an open market purchase. The total outflow involves is 220 crore for 70% of shares or 35 cr out of 50 crores.But the Frank fact remains that they don’t have that much money as it is evident from many previous incidences. So they want to get the entire additional stake free of cost.

    They can think in another way in such a situation. That is the story of warrants. Suppose, they take 34 crore warrants for 260 crores and out of that at least 30 crore coming back to the promoters in future as those are allotted as per previous understanding, all their problems solved. This will make the total holding near to 70 percentage or more. Already they are keeping some additional shares got from oak and purchased in the name of proxi HNI, each of which is just below 1%.

    For this scheme of warrents to be worked out at the said amount, the prices to be kept around 5 rupees.

    After the required regulatory period, bring the shares under the control of the management. This can be by gradual increase in the stock in each quarter, a managed open offer, or forming a foreign holding company which owns huge shares fully under the present promoters. But again this needs the 260 crore rupees plus the commission for proxies. This can be solved through another mechanism.

    Suppose he sells 4 crore shares in future, at 500 rupees, to some institutions, he will get back the money already paid as well as a huge additional sum. Still the management holding will remain near to 65% or above, and the total increase in holding happens free of cost. I think this is the game.

    In order to keep the share price around 5, he is bound to drag the Axis case as well as release a significant portion of the Goenka – Priya Prakash stake to the public.

    I think that the case against the Daum might have started genuinely, but in course of time he understood the potentiality of the business and his attitude changed to utilising the same for his personal benefit.

    So I do reject the theory that his ego is making issues complex, but he is very greedy. But that doesn’t reject the robust nature of business.

    The 260 crore rupees that is shown in the company accounts through the warrants, can be used for acquiring some firms like the boldwin or edgecase.

    I don’t think Goenka was a proxy to skr. Skr might have politely asked to Goenka – we are going to dilute the company by 67% – do you want a small part of that? By this Goenka might have gone frustrated – and decided to exit. Same to Priya.

    Now, there is no reason for controlling the price. probably till the regulatorory process of warrants are completed, the price may be in some control.

    #10040
    buffet
    Registered Boarder

    @drjaysee

    You are correct. Gs are not fools to simply let it go. They are in the market to make money like us. It’s just their gimmick to trick us. Retailers simply don’t have that much capacity to absorb their 12%+ shares.

    With @rathi_b & team’s recent inputs from meeting with SKR, I am very much optimistic. Something better will come out of it. Till then sit tight, wait & watch the game unfolding. That’s the only thing we can do. Best luck to everyone.

    #10041
    vgsatwork
    Registered Boarder

    I am trying to see the brighter side of this. Preferential warrant allottees – once regulatory approval is received in 2-3 weeks – have to shell out 75 crores as initial amount. This is the money that is going to go out immediately and they do not have a choice of NOT paying this 25% upfront payment. The opportunity cost for them ( they could have easily bought 15 crore shares) from open market between dec 4 and 9 when the share price was averaging around this number without inviting the wrath of regulators. Which means they could have had close to 30% stake of the company, which would give them a liquidation value (they can enforce liquidation of the company with 30% stake if the management is not taking the company in growth path or the growth for the company remains elusive) of atleast 180 crores considering stand alone basis book value based on audited figures.if they are risking losing such an opportunity cost (by having to exercise @7.7 when the share price has not moved much from that allotment price), then they know or have been assured of something that we as retail share holders are not aware of it yet. So, we can definitely hope that things would look up..

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