[Logan]

Yes @diamond_2017, you are right, sorry I didn’t notice that.

[m4max1979]

@JRS correct me if I am wrong but do you mean that goenkas hold nearly 18% of total shares…..if yes then I would disagree…as per latest SHP AKG and UNO hold 9.98% and Rajesh Goenka holds 2.6%…..assuming a couple of other goenkas hold less that 1% shares then total would be around 14-15% of total shareholding. I actually doubt they have increased their shareholding by a lot…..its more likely that they have shuffled ownership and consolidated under AKG/UNO and one individual.

And for the part regarding finding stable investors for BCG being top priority for SKR, I think it is complete crap. I do not understand one thing, why would a retail investor leave the scrip when it is making him/her money. If the company really has value then big investors would show up even at book value and more. I think this is just one of his excuses for future when investors ask him what happened to their investment. As has been stated multiple times, his priority should be to close legacy issues and focus on business….rest would take care of itself.

[JRS]

@m4max1979

Sir, I shall put my views in 2 parts.

1) SHP
2) SKR intention and behaviour.

Let be begin with SHP

1) SHP

Sir I said Gteam not Goenkas.It is the name I gave to operators team I.e “ Gteam”, this includes Goenkas and other biggies who together has 29% Share holding.

I made 3 group to make my analysis easy.
a) Promoters
b) Retail investor
c) Gteam (operators)

At last I also declared it is just my analysis and doesn’t carry any credibility.

[m4max1979]

@JRS I understand it is your analysis. I just wanted to understand the rationale behind your analysis. That being said if you are adding up the large domestic and NRI investors along with body corporate entities, it comes to around your figure of around 29%.

[JRS]

Now coming to second part

2) SKR and Intention and Behaviour.

People can see Individuals Behaviour, not intentions.

It is where we all are divided into 2 group one who is interpreting SKR intentions through his behaviour in POSITIVE way, the other who is interpreting in NEGATIVE way.

What SKR upto , that only he knows or God knows.

But let me put my subjective opinion on SKR through a Analogy ( again it is My subjective opinion )

Let me Take an example of a story of Family and relatives.

Family(who looks into fundamentals and fundamental efforts)

Relatives(who looks Into Price, what market thinks the value should be)

So let us see the story of a Family (Husband, Wife, Child) and Relatives (from husband side)

Once relatives visit the Family’s house. And Wife start preparing for Tea, in the process she burns the milk and as you all know the smell spreads badly and remains through out the day.

However Wife tries to clean it and make a fresh tea.The process needs time cleaning the utensils, bringing fresh milk from shop,boiling it again etc etc. And wife since cannot tell it is burnt and you people may leave, she says just 2 mins it will be done every now and then.

she knows very well it will not happen in 2 mins and also she is not sure of time with certainty,as the milk to be bought from shop and how much time it takes.

But in mean while she is cleaning the utensils and getting things ready.

Now the Family who has seen the problem in the kitchen and the efforts of her will understand why she is asking for time of 2 to 3 mins.

What about Relatives sitting outside, the interpretation starts here, some say she doesn’t know cooking, some say she has intentionally done it as she doesn’t want them to come again.

The husband can tell wife’s intention is negative if she is not putting any effort, but if she is putting effort to clean the utensils till she get the milk and trying to manage, then this shows her real positive efforts.

Now let us come to SKR,

1)whether SKR not started cleaning the utensils??..I mean hasn’t he resolved any problem.

2) whether SKR is telling will be done in some time again and again as he doesn’t want to hurt investors and keep them with him or he is just faking.

The interpretation of Intention through Behaviour is left to Investors based on how they are looking at facts. And Only time tells which interpretation is right or wrong.

The Family(Fundamental market) are waiting by trusting and the Relatives(Price Market), is tagging the price according to its interpretation.

Want to be a Family or Relative left to Individual investor.

[VALUEBUYER001]

JRS ji nice analogy

[jmathew]

If we go through the Sep 2020 SHP, 55.18 % of the stocks are with the top 15 investors/group
708, NRI -> 11.5%
237, Bodies and corporate ->12.69 %
PRAVEEN KHURANA -> 1.1%
RAJESH GOENKA -> 2.6%
PRIYA PRAKASH -> 3.63%
GEETHA PATHEJA -> 1.01%
N ANIL KUMAR -> 1.53%
PRABHAKAR REDDY NARAPAREDDY -> 1.1%
AKG FINVESTPRIVATE LTD -> 4.99%
Uno Metals Ltd -> 4.99%
Overseas corporate bodies -> 4.69%
MUSKAAN LIMITED -> 4.69%
Clearing Members -> 0.48%
Trusts -> 0.14%
Employees -> 0.04%

Please check the link below.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/bse/shareholding/shp_public_shares.php?sc_dispid=LGS#LGS

Promoters + top 15 investors hold 36.76 + 55.18 = 91.94 %

The remaining 49000 investors hold only 8 % of the total shares. (total Shareholders 50496 as per Sep SHP)

[Raj]

Can someone validate the shp once again.. Have a doubt of three is any double count on the holding numbers..

[m4max1979]

@jmathew, I think there are a few errors in the SHP calculation

1. NRI holding shared by company includes the shares held by 2 NRI’s you mentioned
2. domestic and overseas Body Corporates includes the parties you mentioned
In my opinion the calculation should be as below:

706, NRI -> 6.78%
235, Bodies and corporate ->2.70 %
PRAVEEN KHURANA -> 1.1%
RAJESH GOENKA -> 2.6%
PRIYA PRAKASH -> 3.63%
GEETHA PATHEJA -> 1.01%
N ANIL KUMAR -> 1.53%
PRABHAKAR REDDY NARAPAREDDY -> 1.1%
AKG FINVESTPRIVATE LTD -> 4.99%
Uno Metals Ltd -> 4.99%
Overseas corporate bodies -> 0.00%
MUSKAAN LIMITED -> 4.69%
Clearing Members -> 0.48%
Trusts -> 0.14%
Employees -> 0.04%

Promoters + top 15 investors hold 36.76 + 35.78 = 72.54 %

Alternatively, in the SHP it mentions that 406 individual investors hold 11.5 crs shares out of which 4 individuals hold 3.18 crs ahres and the remaining 402 individuals hold 8.32 crs shares (16.41%) and like you mentioned 49,058 individuals hold 5.48 crs shares (10.79%) which adds up to 13.80 crs (27.2%) shares amongst 49,464 individual investors.

Interpretation based on this data is upto the individual investor.

[jmathew]

@m4max1979, thank you very much for correcting me. Great Even this “Promoters + top 15 investors hold 36.76 + 35.78 = 72.54 % “looks very good. Also, out of 13.80 CRS (27.2%), a good number will be with the top 1000 investors.
In my view, operators and promotors are fully controlling the price. LOC is the key; LOC means the book is clean and receivable is correct. I believe Axis is a done deal and it is just a matter of time. hopefully, we can expect two positive news ( LOC and Axis closure ) at any time from now and Daum settlement in a couple of months. Price needs to corrected to minimum book value if not EPS x average industry pe.

[nitin_asce]

New shareholding pattern out. Surprisingly goenkas are not there in shareholding >1%. Either they are out or shareholding is less than 1%.

[Optimus Prime 06]

UNO METALS 4.99%
AKG INVEST 4.99%
RAJESH GOENKA 2.6%
PRIYA PRAKASH 3.63%
ABOVE NAMES ARE NOT MENTIONED IN SHAREHOLDING PATTERN..MAY BE THEY R HOLDING LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.
2 LAC BELOW INVESTORS ARE 58112 HOLDING EQUITY SHARES OF 88170956 AVERAGE OF 1500 SHARES.(17.37%]
2LAC ABOVE INVESTORS ARE 518 HOLDING EQUITY SHARES OF 133879282 WITH AN AVERAGE OF 258454(26.37%)

[Rathi_b]

So OCB plus nri now is 14.57%. interesting

[Rathi_b]

Instead retail investors have now have 10% more than before. SHP makes for an interesting study, but my only worry is if there is such an increase in retail investors is that any little rattle and they will start running around like a headless chicken. Correct me if I’m being very pessimistic.

[bhalothia9]

There’s one FII added, small quantity of shares, probably that’s good.
However, Priya Prakash which was a long term investor, his name is not present.

[kckpb]

Foreign Portfolio Investors are now holding 36,39,289 (11,45,289 – Sep 2020)

Individual share capital upto Rs. 2 Lacs are now holding 8,81,70,956 (5,47,82,230 – Sep 2020)

Individual share capital in excess of Rs. 2 Lacs are now holding 13,38,79,282 (11,50,10,391 – Sep 2020)

[kckpb]

Having more shares in retailers hands might lead to steep lows and too highs, which in my personal opinion is not healthy for a share.
There could be other advantages also which I am not aware.

[Sobha]

@Rathi_b, you know the discussions with skr better than anybody. You expressed your confidence also then. You expressed that you cannot reveal everything. Now we see that the retail holding has heavily increased. The number of retail investors doubled. Based on the discussions with skr, what is your thinking now? Goenkas entered in 2014. Why they might have exited? How you evaluate?

[Rathi_b]

@sobha yes the Hyderabad investors ( me and others) had meet him thrice. We did discuss about many things amongst them Goenkas and their manipulations were constant mainstay. I’m happy that they are out now, who so ever owns big chunks are stable investors from the past few quarters. We had spoken about axis, LOC and Daum which are pending now that Goenkas are gone. We should expect a major development in this regard this quarter. I am not so bothered about increase in the retail investors who are generally vulnerable and volatile because the company’s share price has been for a long time impinged on the settlement of these issues. These look good to be settled in the near future, we had been constantly asking SKR regarding the developments regarding these issues and we were generously heard and accomodated with updates. So from our meetings with SKR we expect this quarter and the next to be very eventful. Just remember that the issue of warrants has still not been notified and attested by the exchanges so I think once this happens rest will fall in place one by one. @sobha to be very honest if nothing happens before March then it is a new problem for us. Let me very clear we investors who have met him expect atleast LOC or Axis cleared before March at max.

[buffet]

@rathi_b,

In general, how much time exchanges would take to approve the warrants? any timelines e.g. 2 weeks/4 weeks etc? The stock price would be range-bound around ~10 till then I guess.

[Author]

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